CNOOC(600938) 华福证券·2024-07-09 14:00Investment Rating - The report assigns a "Buy" rating for the company, indicating an expected stock price increase of over 20% relative to the market benchmark index within the next six months [9]. Core Insights - The company is projected to achieve net profits of 143.9 billion, 155 billion, and 163.6 billion yuan for the years 2024, 2025, and 2026, respectively, with growth rates of 16%, 8%, and 5% [14][27]. - The company has a strong reserve replacement rate of 180% and a net production of 678 million barrels of oil equivalent in 2023, indicating robust growth potential [17][57]. - The company is focused on maintaining high capital expenditures, with a target of 125 to 135 billion yuan for 2024, aiming for a production target of 700 to 720 million barrels of oil equivalent [27][36]. Financial Summary - The company's total operating revenue for 2023 is projected at 416.6 billion yuan, with a slight decline of 1.33% year-on-year, followed by growth rates of 10%, 7%, and 6% for the years 2024, 2025, and 2026, respectively [13][28]. - The gross profit margin is expected to be 49.88% in 2023, decreasing to 45.57% by 2026 [13]. - The earnings per share (EPS) are forecasted to be 2.60 yuan for 2023, increasing to 3.44 yuan by 2026 [14][28]. Operational Highlights - The company has successfully reduced its barrel of oil cost by 11% from 2017 to 2023, with the cost expected to further decline to 27.59 USD per barrel in Q1 2024 [40][65]. - The company is actively pursuing technological innovations to enhance production efficiency and reduce costs, which is expected to strengthen its competitive position in the market [25][71]. - The company has a diversified portfolio, with significant operations in both oil and gas exploration and production, benefiting from the current upward trend in oil prices [42][67].