2026 年 04 月 01 日 油价下行拖累业绩、高储备低成本支撑盈利弹性 —中国海油（600938.SH）公司事件点评报告 买入(维持) 事件 中国海油发布 2025 年年度业绩报告：2025 年公司实现营业 总收入 3982.20 亿元，同比减少 5.30%；实现归母净利润 1220.82 亿元，同比减少 11.49%。其中，公司 2025Q4 单季度 实现营业收入 857.17 亿元，同比减少 9.28%，环比减少 18.28%；实现归母净利润 201.11 亿元，同比减少 5.48%，环 比减少 38.00%。 投资要点 | 分析师：卢昊 | S1050526020001 | | --- | --- | | luhao@cfsc.com.cn | | | 联系人：高铭谦 | S1050124080006 | | gaomq@cfsc.com.cn | | ▌产量增长对冲油价下跌，成本优势构筑盈利韧性 | 基本数据 | 2026-03-31 | | --- | --- | | 当前股价（元） | 40 | | 总市值（亿元） | 19012 | | 总股本（百万股） | 47530 | | 流通股本（ ...

2026 年 04 月 01 日 油价下行拖累业绩、高储备低成本支撑盈利弹性 —中国海油（600938.SH）公司事件点评报告 买入(维持) 事件 中国海油发布 2025 年年度业绩报告：2025 年公司实现营业 总收入 3982.20 亿元，同比减少 5.30%；实现归母净利润 1220.82 亿元，同比减少 11.49%。其中，公司 2025Q4 单季度 实现营业收入 857.17 亿元，同比减少 9.28%，环比减少 18.28%；实现归母净利润 201.11 亿元，同比减少 5.48%，环 比减少 38.00%。 投资要点 ▌产量增长对冲油价下跌，成本优势构筑盈利韧性 公司 2025 年业绩承压下滑主要是受到国际油价下降影响。 2025 年内，各主要原油生产国多次增产，叠加上新能源消费 对原油消费的替代性冲击，导致国际油价整体走弱。2025 年 公司平均实现油价 66.47 美元/桶，同比下降 13.4%；天然气 平均实现价格为 7.95 美元/千立方英尺，同比上涨 3.0%。受 到低油价拖累，公司 2025 年油气销售收入 3357 亿元，同比 下滑 5.6%。公司通过增储上产和成本管控来对冲价格风 ...

中[Ta国ble海_Sto油ckN（ameRptType] 600938） 公司点评 产量上台阶成本再压缩，油价中枢上行配置价值凸显 | 投资评级： | 买入（维持） | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 报告日期： | 2026-04-01 |  | 事件描述 | | 收盘价（元） | 40.00 | | --- | --- | | 近 12 个月最高/最低（元） | 44.54/23.11 | | 总股本（百万股） | 47,530 | | 流通股本（百万股） | 2,990 | | 流通股比例（%） | 6.29 | | 总市值（亿元） | 19,012 | | 流通市值（亿元） | 1,196 | 执业证书号：S0010522110002 邮箱：wangqf@hazq.com 相关报告 1.25Q3 业绩符合预期，巩固成本竞争 力 2025-11-02 2.25H1 业绩符合预期，产量增长抵消 油价波动影响 2025-09-04 3.油气净产量稳步增长，成本竞争优 势巩固 2025-05-21 主要观点： 事件描述 3 月 27 日公司发布 2025 年报，全年公司实现 ...

Overall Research - In March, both A-shares and Hong Kong stocks experienced a general pullback, with significant differentiation across sectors. The A-share market saw the ChiNext index decline by 0.4%, while the Sci-Tech 50 index fell by 12.6%. In Hong Kong, the Hang Seng China Enterprises Index dropped by 4.6%, and the Hang Seng Index fell by 6.3% [1][2]. A-share Insights - Chinese assets are expected to show internal stability and potential for mid-term upward movement. Despite facing short-term risks from oil price fluctuations and declining risk appetite, the domestic market's high energy self-sufficiency provides some resistance to rising external energy prices. Historically, domestic exports tend to benefit from increased external uncertainties, indicating a stable supply chain [1]. Sector Recommendations - Focus on sectors that have previously experienced significant declines, those benefiting from rising commodity prices, and industries with potential for exceeding performance expectations. The report highlights resource products, essential consumption, hard technology, and government investment-related sectors as key areas of interest [2]. Hong Kong Market Insights - The Hong Kong market is positioned for resilience, with the OpenClaw framework redefining the AI industry narrative. The performance of leading AI companies in the US, such as Nvidia and Google, supports a robust fundamental backdrop for a rebound in Hong Kong stocks. The market is experiencing a convergence of three favorable factors: clear industry prosperity, improving sentiment as geopolitical concerns ease, and strong capital support, with net inflows of 63.2 billion HKD as of March 27 [3]. Investment Focus - The report recommends prioritizing investments in the technology sector, particularly through Hong Kong technology ETFs, to capitalize on the overall rebound. Specific focus should be on companies that are rapidly commercializing AI and have stable cash flows and low valuations [3]. A-share Stock Recommendations - The recommended A-share stocks for April 2026 include: - Zhongji Xuchuang (中际旭创) - Communication - Teruid (特锐德) - Power Equipment - Jereh (杰瑞股份) - Machinery - Nanjing Bank (南京银行) - Banking - Zijin Mining (紫金矿业) - Non-ferrous Metals - China Petroleum (中国石油) - Oil and Petrochemicals - China National Offshore Oil Corporation (中国海油) - Oil and Petrochemicals - Jinjiang Hotels (锦江酒店) - Social Services - Huaneng International (华能国际) - Utilities - Haier Smart Home (海尔智家) - Home Appliances [4][6]. Hong Kong Stock Recommendations - The recommended Hong Kong stocks for April 2026 include: - Hon Teng Precision (鸿腾精密) - Communication - Huiju Technology (汇聚科技) - Power Equipment - Alibaba (阿里巴巴-W) - Retail [4][7].

证券研究报告 公司研究 胡晓艺 石化行业分析师 执业编号：S1500524070003 邮箱：huxiaoyi@cindasc.com 信达证券股份有限公司 CINDA SECURITIES CO.,LTD 北京市西城区宣武门西大街甲127号金 隅大厦B座 邮编：100031 [Table_Title] 油气产量创新高，业绩有望进一步受益油价 [Table_ReportDate] 2026 年 3 月 30 日 [Table_S 事件：202ummar 6 年y]3 月 26 日晚，中国海油发布 2025 年度报告。2025 年，公 司实现营收 3982.20 亿元，同比-5.30%；实现归母净利润 1220.82 亿元， 同比-11.49%；扣非后归母净利润 1203.79 亿元，同比-9.76%。实现基本每 股收益 2.57 元，同比-11.38%。 [Table_ReportType] 点评报告 [Table_StockAndRank] 中国海油（600938.SH） 中国海洋石油（0883.HK） | | | 上次评级 买入 [Table_Author] 刘红光 石化行业联席首席分析师 执业编号：S1 ...

| 华安研究 2026年4月金股组合 | 归母净利润 | （百万元 | ） | 归母净利润增速 | 营业收入 | （百万元 | ） | 营业收入增速 | eps | pe(其余有说明 | ) | 行业 | 金股代码 | 金股 | 核心推荐逻辑 | 风险提示 | 研究员 | 报告依据 | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- ...

Core Viewpoint - The financial performance of China's three major oil companies, known as "Three Barrels of Oil," has declined in 2025 due to falling international oil prices, but future prospects remain optimistic as analysts adjust target prices upward for these companies [3][4][6]. Group 1: Financial Performance - In 2025, China National Petroleum Corporation (CNPC) reported revenue of 2.86 trillion yuan, a decrease of 2.5% year-on-year, and a net profit attributable to shareholders of 157.3 billion yuan, down 4.5% [3]. - China Petroleum & Chemical Corporation (Sinopec) achieved revenue of 2.783583 trillion yuan, a decline of 9.46%, and a net profit of 31.809 billion yuan, down 36.78% [4]. - China National Offshore Oil Corporation (CNOOC) reported revenue of 398.22 billion yuan, a decrease of 5.3%, and a net profit of 122.082 billion yuan, down 11.5% [4]. Group 2: Operational Highlights - CNPC's oil and gas equivalent production reached 1.8419 billion barrels, an increase of 2.5%, while renewable energy generation rose to 7.93 billion kWh, up 68.0% [3]. - CNOOC's management indicated that despite a 14.6% drop in Brent oil prices, their net profit decline was less severe, showcasing strong operational performance [5]. - Sinopec's management noted challenges in refining and chemical operations but highlighted stable upstream business performance and sufficient inventory to support operations [5]. Group 3: Market Outlook - Analysts from UBS and Goldman Sachs have raised their profit forecasts for the three companies for 2026, with increases of 13%, 16%, and 0.4% for CNPC, CNOOC, and Sinopec, respectively [6]. - Following the rise in oil prices due to geopolitical tensions, the stock prices of the three companies have reached new highs, with CNPC and Sinopec hitting 13.69 yuan and 8.11 yuan per share, respectively, and CNOOC surpassing 40 yuan per share [5].

行业研究 证 券 研 究 报 告 石油石化行业周报（20260323-20260327） 推荐（维持） 油价高位震荡，下游化工品持续顺价传导 重点公司盈利预测、估值及投资评级 | | | | | EPS（元） | | | PE（倍） | | PB（倍） | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 简称 | 代码 | 股价（元） 2026E | | 2027E | 2028E | 2026E | 2027E | 2028E | 2026E | 评级 | | 中国海油 | 600938.SH | 41.07 | 3.02 | 3.09 | | 13.59 | 13.29 | | 2.27 | 强推 | | 恒力石化 | 600346.SH | 21.36 | 1.35 | 1.62 | | 15.85 | 13.16 | | 2.05 | 强推 | | 荣盛石化 | 002493.SZ | 12.10 | 0.43 | 0.53 | | 28.40 | 22.84 | | 2.60 | 强推 | | 广汇能源 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a positive outlook on the oil and petrochemical industry, recommending key companies such as China National Offshore Oil Corporation (CNOOC), China Petroleum, China Petrochemical, and Intercontinental Oil and Gas [3][6][7]. Core Insights - The blockage of the Strait of Hormuz has led to a significant restructuring of the global oil market, with Brent crude prices exceeding $112 per barrel, marking a monthly increase of over 55%, the largest in recent years [6][7]. - The average daily oil throughput in the Strait dropped from 14.95 million barrels per day to 1.74 million barrels per day, a decline of 88.4%, with tanker traffic plummeting by 97.5% [10][11]. - Major oil-producing countries in the Persian Gulf have been forced to reduce production by a total of 9.26 million barrels per day, a decrease of 38%, which offsets OPEC+ plans for increased production [12][13]. - Refinery operating rates in major Asian oil-consuming countries have decreased by 8-15 percentage points, leading to a reduction in crude oil processing demand by approximately 3-4 million barrels per day [14][15]. Summary by Sections Upstream Sector - Brent crude futures closed at $112.57 per barrel, with a week-on-week increase of 0.34%, while WTI futures rose by 1.44% to $99.64 per barrel [20]. - The number of active drilling rigs in the U.S. decreased to 543, down by 9 rigs week-on-week and 49 rigs year-on-year [33][34]. Refining Sector - The comprehensive price spread for major refined products in Singapore increased to $73.70 per barrel, up by $3.40 from the previous week [52]. - The price spread for naphtha and ethylene has also seen significant increases, indicating improved refining margins [6][50]. Polyester Sector - PTA profitability has increased, while the profitability of polyester filament yarn has decreased, indicating mixed performance within the polyester supply chain [6][7]. Investment Recommendations - The report suggests that oil prices have upward elasticity, with companies like CNOOC, China Petroleum, and China Petrochemical expected to benefit from high oil prices in 2026 [6][7]. - It also highlights the potential for increased investment in oil and gas exploration and development, recommending companies such as CNOOC Services and Haiyou Engineering [6][7].

2026.3.26 Annual Results Board of Directors and Management at Today's Conference Huang Yongzhang Vice Chairman, Executive Director, CEO, President Senior Vice President, CFO Financial Results Yan Hongtao Senior Vice President Mu Xiuping Xu Yugao General Counsel, Chief Compliance Officer, Joint Company Secretary, Secretary to the Board 2 01 02 03 04 Operating Results Remarks Q&A Session 3 Macro Environment 2025 GDP growth rates 3.3% 1.7% 4.4% Global Advanced Economies Emerging Markets and Developing Economie ...