要点 3 月 5 日，第十四届全国人民代表大会第四次会议在人民大会堂开幕，国务院总 理李强作政府工作报告。报告回顾了 2025 年工作，提出了"十五五"时期主要 目标和重大任务以及 2026 年经济社会发展总体要求和政策取向，并部署了 2026 年政府工作任务。 首提"能源强国建设规划纲要"，能源安全战略地位再提升。报告明确"十五五" 期间能源综合生产能力目标达到 58 亿吨标准煤，较"十四五"末目标（不低于 46 亿吨标准煤）进一步大幅提升，体现了在外部环境复杂严峻背景下政府保障 国内能源供给的坚定决心。当前全球地缘政治风险持续高企，俄乌冲突已进入第 四年，美以伊近期又再度出现地缘政治冲突，我国原油、天然气对外依存度长期 较高，能源化工产业链安全面临多重挑战。在此背景下，"三桶油"持续响应国 家增储上产战略，勘探开发资本开支有望维持高位，下属油服有望充分受益。 2026 年 3 月 7 日 行业研究 政府工作报告聚焦安全发展与"双碳"，关注新兴产业需求及"AI+" ——基础化工行业周报（20260302-20260306） 风险提示：政策落地不及预期，产品及原材料价格波动，下游需求不及预期，行 业竞争加剧。 ...

2026 年 3 月 7 日 行业研究 美伊冲突持续背景下，如何看待石化化工板块投资机会？ ——石油化工行业周报第 441 期（20260302—20260308） 要点 美伊冲突持续背景下，如何看待石化化工板块投资机会？美伊冲突持续一方 面会直接推高全球油价，另一方面伊朗若长期封锁霍尔木兹海峡，将推高原油 及化工品运输成本，伊朗局势如何演绎将很大程度影响全球化工品走势，全球 能源及化工品供需格局或将迎来重塑。在此背景下，我们认为建议关注三大主 线：1）继续看好油气板块，看好上游、油服、油运等板块的长期价值；2） 关注地缘冲突背景下的化工品供需格局重塑；3）关注油头的替代路线——煤 化工板块。 原油价格大幅上涨，油气、油服、油运长期价值凸显。原油供需面临一定压 力，但本轮地缘政治冲突有望使原油供需担忧得到缓解，地缘风险溢价的整体 上升有望在一段时间内持续推高油价。作为上游油气领域央企巨头，"三桶油" 和油服在油价上行期的业绩弹性凸显。2026 年，"三桶油"将继续维持高资 本开支，不断加强天然气市场开拓，加快中下游炼化业务转型，有望实现穿越 油价周期的长期成长。油服方面，国内高额上游资本开支投入将有力保障上游 ...

Macro and Strategy - The 2026 government work report emphasizes the priority of "high-quality development" over "stability" with a GDP growth target adjusted to 4.5%-5.0%, aiming to balance growth and quality during a transitional period [7][8] - Fiscal policy remains "more proactive," with a total broad deficit of 11.89 trillion yuan and a deficit rate of approximately 8.1%, reflecting a slight decrease from the previous year [8] - Monetary policy is expected to remain "moderately loose," with anticipated adjustments including one rate cut and one reserve requirement ratio reduction in 2026 [8] Petrochemical Industry - The petrochemical industry investment strategy for March 2026 recommends focusing on rising crude oil and natural gas prices driven by geopolitical factors, particularly following military actions in the Middle East that disrupted energy supplies [9][10] - The conflict has led to significant price increases in European natural gas, with prices surging over 50% due to supply disruptions from Iran and Qatar [9] - The supply side is experiencing a downturn in fixed asset investment, indicating the end of the expansion cycle, while policies are aimed at eliminating low-priced, disordered competition [10] - Demand is expected to recover moderately due to global central banks entering a rate-cutting cycle, alongside growth in new energy and AI sectors driving demand for key chemicals [11] - The report forecasts Brent crude oil prices stabilizing between $70-$75 per barrel and WTI prices between $65-$70 per barrel in 2026, with specific investment recommendations for companies like China National Offshore Oil Corporation and China Petroleum [12] Retail Industry - The retail investment strategy for March 2026 highlights the proactive positioning of leading beauty brands for the upcoming International Women's Day promotions, with expectations for improved performance due to new product launches [17] - Gold prices have seen significant fluctuations, with a year-to-date increase of 22.34%, impacting consumer sentiment and sales in the jewelry sector [18] - The report maintains an "outperform" rating for the retail sector, suggesting that leading companies in gold and beauty will continue to grow despite short-term market volatility [19] Ctrip Group - Ctrip's Q4 2025 revenue grew by 20.8% year-on-year, outperforming expectations, with a total revenue of 15.4 billion yuan [20][21] - The company is focusing on enhancing user experience and optimizing traffic monetization, with significant growth in overseas bookings through its Trip.com platform [21] - Regulatory scrutiny regarding antitrust issues is a key concern, but the company's strong operational capabilities and supply chain integration are expected to support steady growth [22][23]

Investment Rating - The report rates the petrochemical industry as "Outperform the Market" [1][10]. Core Viewpoints - The report highlights investment directions driven by rising crude oil and natural gas prices, as well as geopolitical factors, particularly following military actions in the Middle East that have disrupted energy supplies and caused significant price increases in Europe [1][16]. Supply Side Summary - Since June 2025, fixed asset investment in the chemical raw materials and products manufacturing industry has turned negative, with capital expenditures in basic chemicals and most sub-sectors declining for several consecutive quarters, indicating the end of the industry expansion cycle [2][17]. - The "anti-involution" policy aims to eliminate low-price disorderly competition and promote the exit of backward production capacity, affecting sectors like pesticides, petrochemicals, and organic silicon [2][17]. - Approval for new chemical production capacity is expected to tighten, accelerating the exit of high-energy-consuming and high-polluting small-scale backward production capacity [2][17]. Demand Side Summary - Traditional demand is expected to recover moderately due to global central banks entering a rate-cutting cycle and fiscal stimulus policies [2][17]. - Emerging demand from industries such as renewable energy and AI continues to drive growth in key chemicals and materials [2][17]. - The ongoing reduction of overseas chemical production capacity, particularly in Europe due to high energy costs and aging facilities, is expected to benefit Chinese chemical companies, which hold over 40% of global sales [2][17]. Macro and Chemical Product Prices - As of February 2026, China's comprehensive PMI output index was 49.5%, indicating a slight decline in production activities [3][18]. - The chemical product price index (CCPI) reported 4027 points, down 2% month-on-month, reflecting structural differentiation in chemical prices [3][18]. - International oil prices have risen significantly due to geopolitical tensions, with WTI and Brent crude oil futures reaching $74.66 and $81.40 per barrel, respectively, marking increases of 11.4% and 12.3% from the end of February [3][18]. Key Industry Research - Oil and Gas: February oil prices surged due to geopolitical tensions, with Brent averaging $69.4 per barrel and WTI at $64.4 per barrel, reflecting a month-on-month increase [23]. - Fluorochemicals: The industry is expected to maintain high demand due to the ongoing transition to second-generation refrigerants and the growth of the liquid cooling industry [19]. - Phosphate Chemicals: The demand for phosphate rock is anticipated to increase due to its scarcity and the growing need for energy storage [19]. - Potash: The global potash market is expected to recover, with a focus on companies like Yara International, which has significant potash reserves and production capacity [19][7]. Monthly Investment Portfolio - Recommended companies include China National Petroleum Corporation, China National Offshore Oil Corporation, Yara International, Dongyue Group, New Hope Liuhe, and Chuanheng Co., Ltd., all of which are positioned to benefit from the current market dynamics [22][9].

Core Insights - The report recommends investment directions driven by rising crude oil and natural gas prices, as well as geopolitical factors, particularly following military actions in the Middle East that have disrupted energy supplies [1][16] - The report highlights the impact of the Iran-Israel conflict on global energy markets, with significant price increases in European natural gas and potential profit recovery opportunities for domestic chemical sectors [1][16] Supply Side - Since June 2025, fixed asset investment in the chemical raw materials and products manufacturing industry has turned negative, with capital expenditures in basic chemicals and most sub-sectors declining for several consecutive quarters, indicating the end of the industry expansion cycle [2][17] - The "anti-involution" policy aims to eliminate low-price competition and promote the exit of backward production capacity, with industries such as pesticides, petrochemicals, and organic silicon already following suit [2][17] - Approval for new chemical production capacity is expected to tighten, accelerating the exit of high-energy-consuming and high-polluting small-scale backward production capacities [2][17] Demand Side - Traditional demand is expected to recover moderately due to global central banks entering a rate-cutting cycle and fiscal policy stimulus [2][17] - Emerging demand from industries such as renewable energy and AI continues to drive growth in key chemicals and materials [2][17] - China's chemical product sales account for over 40% of the global market, and with the dual drivers of overseas capacity reduction and domestic demand recovery, Chinese chemical companies are expected to continue increasing their global market share [2][17] Macro and Chemical Product Prices - In February 2026, China's comprehensive PMI output index was 49.5%, indicating a slight decline, with manufacturing PMI at 49.0% [3][18] - The China Chemical Product Price Index (CCPI) reported 4027 points, a 2% decrease month-on-month, indicating structural differentiation in chemical prices [3][18] - International oil prices have significantly increased due to geopolitical tensions, with WTI and Brent crude futures prices rising by 11.4% and 12.3% respectively by March 4, 2026 [3][18] Key Industry Research - Oil and Gas: February oil prices surged due to geopolitical tensions, with Brent averaging $69.4 per barrel and WTI at $64.4 per barrel, reflecting a significant increase [3][23] - Fluorochemicals: The industry is expected to maintain high prosperity due to the tight supply-demand balance and rising prices of mainstream refrigerants [3][19] - Phosphate Chemicals: The demand for phosphate rock is expected to increase due to energy storage applications, reinforcing its scarcity and maintaining high prices [3][19] - Potash: The global potash market is characterized by oligopoly and resource scarcity, with prices expected to recover moderately [3][19] Investment Portfolio - Recommended companies include China National Petroleum Corporation, CNOOC, Yara International, Dongyue Group, New Chemical Materials, and Chuanheng Co., which are positioned to benefit from the current market dynamics [3][22]

作者 | 哥吉拉 数据支持 | 勾股 大数 据（www.gogudata.com） 谁能想到，美以伊这边打得不可开交，连续两天涨停的 "三桶油"成了资金的避风港。 短短三个交易日，中国石油、中国海油涨近 20% ，中国石化涨近 15% 。 中石油甚至只需要再努力一点，就可以超过工商银行，坐上 A 股市值第一的"宝座"。 时间线再拉长些，自从 1 月美国往中东增兵，开战形势露出苗头后，石化油气等板块连日的上涨趋势就此开启。 潜能恒信、通源石油、洲际油气等中小市值石油股进入疯狂的翻倍模式，完全踩在短期题材博弈的节奏中。 | | | | | 油气股年初迄今股价表现 | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 还原 | 代理 | 名称 | 现价 | 涨幅 | 年初至今 | 总市值 | | 1 | 300164 | 通線石油 | 22.41 | -8.75% | 305.98% | 131.9亿 | | 2 | | 920088 科力股份 | 80.28 | -9.22% | 174.93% | 70.70亿 | | 3 | 600759 | 洲际油气 | 8 ...

2026 年 3 月 5 日 行业研究 聚焦能源及粮食安全与"双碳"，新兴产业与 AI 赋能化工新格局 ——2026 年"两会"政府工作报告石化化工行业学习体会 基础化工 增持（维持） 作者 分析师：赵乃迪 执业证书编号：S0930517050005 010-57378026 zhaond@ebscn.com 分析师：周家诺 执业证书编号：S0930523070007 021-52523675 zhoujianuo@ebscn.com 行业与沪深 300 指数对比图 -10% 6% 23% 39% 56% 03/25 06/25 08/25 12/25 基础化工 沪深300 资料来源：Wind 要点 事件： 3 月 5 日，第十四届全国人民代表大会第四次会议在人民大会堂开幕，国务院 总理李强作政府工作报告。报告回顾了 2025 年工作，提出了"十五五"时期主要 目标和重大任务以及 2026 年经济社会发展总体要求和政策取向，并部署了 2026 年 政府工作任务。本文将主要围绕能源安全、粮食安全、碳达峰碳中和、反"内卷"、 新兴产业、人工智能+等方面，以石化化工行业视角对政府工作报告要点进行介绍和 阐述学习体会 ...

China’s government has told the country’s top oil refiners to suspend exports of diesel and gasoline as an escalating conflict in the Persian Gulf disrupts the arrival of crude from one of the world’s largest producing regions. While the country is only the third-largest supplier of oil products into the region — its vast refining sector primarily serves domestic demand — China’s curbs just six days into a war reflect a scramble across Asia to prioritize domestic needs as the crisis in the Middle East dee ...

来源：新浪基金∞工作室 能源ETF广发（159945）业绩比较基准为中证全指能源指数，管理人为广发基金管理有限公司，基金经 理为姚曦，成立（2015-06-25）以来回报为54.06%，近一个月回报为17.14%。 声明：市场有风险，投资需谨慎。本文基于第三方数据库自动发布，不代表新浪财经观点，任何在本文 出现的信息均只作为参考，不构成个人投资建议。如有出入请以实际公告为准。如有疑问，请联系 biz@staff.sina.com.cn。 3月5日，能源ETF广发（159945）开盘跌1.76%，报1.506元。能源ETF广发（159945）重仓股方面，中 国神华开盘跌1.00%，中国石油跌4.46%，中国石化跌2.03%，陕西煤业跌1.03%，中国海油跌1.98%，杰 瑞股份涨2.07%，兖矿能源跌3.59%，中煤能源跌0.99%，广汇能源跌3.20%，山西焦煤跌1.08%。 ...

2026年3月5日星期四 ➢ 美经济数据强劲；中国或调低经济目标。 A股跳空下跌。上证指数收跌0.98%报 4082.47点，深证成指跌0.75%，创业板指 跌1.41%。航天航海，船舶，油气开采等 行业涨幅居前。香港恒生指数收跌2.01% 报25249.48点，连跌3日；恒生科技指数 跌0.96%，恒生中国企业指数跌1.45%。油 气、航运板块显著回调，科网股普跌。 大市成交额大放量至3643.039亿港元。外 盘方面，欧洲三大股指止跌反弹，美国 三 大 股 指 全 线 收 涨 ， 道指涨 0.49% 报 48739.41 点 ， 标 普 500 指 数 涨 0.78% 报 6869.5点，纳指涨1.29%。美国2月服务业 扩张步伐创近四年来最快，ADP数据显示 美企新增就业岗位创7月以来最高。全国 人大会议周四开幕，中国政府或调低今 年经济增速目标。 资料来源：彭博 | 25249.48 | -2.01 | -1.49 | | --- | --- | --- | | 8483.95 | -1.45 | -4.82 | | 4829.50 | -0.96 | -12.45 | | 121.99 | 0.44 ...