向绿向新向智，迈向化工强国 —— "十五五"报告解读 分析师：王鹏、翟启迪、孙思源 www.chinastock.com.cn 证券研究报告 请务必阅读正文最后的中国银河证券股份有限公司免责声明 行业深度报告 · 基础化工行业 向绿向新向智，迈向化工强国 —— "十五五"报告解读 2026 年 03 月 14 日 核心观点 基础化工行业 | | | 分析师 王鹏 ：zhaiqidi_yj@chinastock.com.cn 分析师登记编码：S0130524060004 孙思源 ：0755-23913136 ：sunsiyuan_yj@chinastock.com.cn 分析师登记编码：S0130523070004 相对沪深 300 表现图 2026 年 03 月 13 日 资料来源：中国银河证券研究院 ：010-80927713 ：wangpeng_yj@chinastock.com.cn 分析师登记编码：S0130525090001 翟启迪 ：010-80927677 -50% 0% 50% 100% 2025/3/14 2025/4/14 2025/5/14 2025/6/14 2025/7/14 202 ...

www.chinastock.com.cn 证券研究报告 请务必阅读正文最后的中国银河证券股份有限公司免责声明 行业深度报告 · 基础化工行业 向绿向新向智，迈向化工强国 —— "十五五"报告解读 分析师：王鹏、翟启迪、孙思源 基础化工行业 | | | 分析师 向绿向新向智，迈向化工强国 —— "十五五"报告解读 2026 年 03 月 14 日 核心观点 王鹏 ：010-80927713 ：wangpeng_yj@chinastock.com.cn 分析师登记编码：S0130525090001 翟启迪 相关研究 1.【银河化工】行业点评_破卷向新，绿色低碳—— 2026 年政府工作报告解读_20260305 ：010-80927677 ：zhaiqidi_yj@chinastock.com.cn 分析师登记编码：S0130524060004 孙思源 ：0755-23913136 ：sunsiyuan_yj@chinastock.com.cn 分析师登记编码：S0130523070004 相对沪深 300 表现图 2026 年 03 月 13 日 -50% 0% 50% 100% 2025/3/14 2025 ...

2026年03月13日 证券研究报告 | 原油行业分析框架 u 原油兼具大宗商品、地缘政治和金融三大属性，价格形成机制较为复杂。原油作为大宗商品，价格受供需、库存影响较大。地缘政治方面的战争及特殊事件会对 原油价格造成冲击。而原油多以美元进行支付，美元利率同样会影响原油价格。原油作为应用最广泛的大宗商品之一，任何"黑天鹅"事件都将对油价造成剧烈冲击， 但中长期视角看，原油价格中枢受供需基本面影响最大。2023年以来，原油供需基本面趋于宽松，油价中枢不断下行。 u 供给方面，中东地区储备占比接近60%，沙特阿拉伯、美国和俄罗斯是世界原油市场重要供应方。原油资源可根据地理位置、油质、开采难度等因素分为常规和 非常规两大类。中东地区坐拥丰富的常规石油资源，而美国则以非常规石油中的页岩油为主。OPEC是对国际原油价格影响最大的组织之一，其通过联合控制产量，进 而调控油价。美国通过"页岩油革命"成为全球第一大石油生产国，由于其资源劣质化较快，新油井的盈亏平衡成本不断走高，美国石油产量将下降。 u 需求方面，石油需求与全球经济增长高度相关，经济结构也对石油需求量有较大影响。宏观层面上，石油需求中长期与全球经济增长高度相关 ...

再一条线是由供给冲击带来的海外减产引发的涨价逻辑 ，像电解铝和一些化工品，主要逻辑是受海外能源成本高企导致产能退出或减产，而我兔凭 借能源供应稳定性，具备出口竞争力，如云铝股份（电解铝）、兴发集团（硫磷化工龙头）、安迪苏（蛋氨酸寡头）等。 大A近期显示出较强的韧性，这四条线的表现很突出，后续也会继续观察并深挖，期待两市成交的量能有所回升。仅是记录，不作为股票推荐。 ↑点击上面图片 加雪球核心交流群 ↑ 风险提示：本文所提到的观点仅代表个人的意见，所涉及标的不作推荐，据此买卖，风险自负。 作者： 三石而立orz 来源：雪球 最近仓位降下来了，所以行情于我显得有些寡淡，多追踪下行业。 虽然油价较最高点有所回落，但中枢已经显著抬高，而且市场预期可能会保持一段时间，影响已逐渐显现，这段时间观察到的一些市场反映如下。 一条线是油气上游的资源价值重估 ，目前看是逻辑最直接、确定性最高的部分。油价上涨，上游资源品的账面价值和现金流直接增厚。在勘探与生 产成本相对固定的情况下，油价的上涨，几乎直接体现为利润净增；同时拥有充沛现金流的上游巨头具备极强的防御与分红能力，具有一定红利属 性，典型如中国海油、中国石油。 第二条线是油 ...

Core Viewpoint - The recent data from China's offshore oil and gas sector indicates significant potential in deep-sea oil and gas production, with projections for substantial increases in output by 2025 [2][3]. Group 1: Production Projections - By 2025, China's largest offshore gas field, "Deep Sea No. 1," is expected to exceed an oil equivalent production of 4.5 million tons, comparable to medium-sized onshore oil fields, with advanced production operation and maintenance technologies [2]. - The cumulative oil and gas production from the offshore gas fields around Hainan Island, including "Deep Sea No. 1," is projected to surpass 10 million tons of oil equivalent by 2025, doubling the production compared to the end of the 13th Five-Year Plan, with deep-sea fields contributing over 90% of the new production in the region [2]. - The Bohai Oilfield, China's largest offshore oil field, is anticipated to achieve a cumulative oil and gas production of over 40 million tons of oil equivalent by 2025, marking a historical high [2]. Group 2: Exploration and Development Efforts - According to the "China Marine Energy Development Report 2025," China's offshore oil production is expected to reach approximately 6.8 million tons, reflecting a year-on-year increase of about 250,000 tons, accounting for 80% of the national oil production increase [2]. - As of the end of Q3 2025, China has made five new discoveries in its maritime areas, successfully evaluated 22 oil and gas structures, and launched 11 new projects, indicating a robust exploration effort [2]. - Significant breakthroughs have been achieved in the Beibu Gulf Basin, including the discovery of China's first deep and ultra-deep clastic rock oil field with a billion-ton capacity, the Huizhou 19-6 oil field [2]. Group 3: Technological Advancements - "Deep Sea No. 1" is noted for being the most challenging offshore gas field developed by China, with a maximum operational water depth exceeding 1,500 meters and a geological temperature reaching 138 degrees Celsius, boasting proven geological reserves of over 150 billion cubic meters of natural gas [3]. - The field's core facilities, including the "Deep Sea No. 1" energy station and the "Four Stars in a Row" platform group, possess the capability for deep-sea oil and gas processing, enabling on-site separation and transportation of natural gas and crude oil [3]. - Daily production from "Deep Sea No. 1" includes 15 million cubic meters of natural gas and over 1,600 tons of condensate oil, with plans to achieve an annual natural gas production of 5 billion cubic meters by 2025, surpassing the designed capacity peak [3].

恒指跌0.52%，恒生科技指数跌0.42%。理想汽车、宁德时代、地平线机器人跌幅靠前；中国神华涨逾2%，网易涨近2%，中国海洋石油、中国石油股份涨逾 1%。 (本文来自第一财经) ...

作者 | 一财阿驴 09:27 煤炭板块高开，郑州煤电涨停，华电能源、昊华能源、兰花科创、新大洲A、陕西黑猫跟涨。 09:25 A股开盘丨三大指数集体低开 沪指低开0.28%，深成指低开0.51%，创业板指低开0.63%，科创综指低开0.61%。 | 代码 | 名称 | 两日图 | 现价 | 涨跌 | 涨跌幅 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 000001 | 上证指数 | | 4117.57 | -11.53 | -0.28% | | 399001 | 深证成指 | | 14300.92 | -73.95 | -0.51% | | 399006 | 创业板指 | ﺭ | 3296.50 | -21.02 | -0.63% | | 000680 | 科创综指 | 2 | 1745.50 | -10.64 | -0.61% | 2026.03. 13 本文字数：459，阅读时长大约1分钟 第一财经持续追踪财经热点。若您掌握公司动态、行业趋势、金融事件等有价值的线索，欢迎提供。 专用邮箱：bianjibu@yicai.com （注：我们会对线索进行核实。您的隐私将 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Positive" outlook on the petrochemical industry, highlighting potential investment opportunities in various segments [3]. Core Insights - Global crude oil supply tightening may impact overseas refinery operations, with significant implications for oil prices and refining costs [5][6]. - The Middle East plays a crucial role in global oil supply, with 37% of global production and 20% of consumption passing through the Strait of Hormuz, which is currently facing disruptions [5][6]. - The report anticipates a shift in the Asian chemical trade landscape, with Chinese companies likely to benefit from supply disruptions in the Middle East [5][12]. Summary by Sections Upstream Sector - Brent crude oil prices increased to $92.69 per barrel, a 27.88% rise week-on-week, while WTI prices reached $90.90 per barrel, up 35.63% [16]. - U.S. commercial crude oil inventories rose to 439 million barrels, with gasoline inventories decreasing to 253 million barrels [18]. - The number of U.S. drilling rigs increased slightly to 551, while Canadian rigs decreased to 205 [29] [30]. Refining Sector - The Singapore refining margin rose to $34.11 per barrel, while the U.S. gasoline-WTI spread decreased to $25.3 per barrel [5]. - The report notes that refining profitability is expected to improve as oil prices stabilize and economic recovery progresses [5][12]. Polyester Sector - PTA profitability has declined, with the average price in East China at 5440.83 CNY per ton, a 4.37% increase week-on-week [5]. - The report suggests that the polyester industry may see gradual improvement as new capacity comes online [5][12]. Investment Recommendations - The report recommends high-quality companies in the polyester sector, such as Tongkun Co. and Wankai New Materials, as well as major refining companies like Hengli Petrochemical and Rongsheng Petrochemical [5][12]. - It also highlights the potential of offshore oil service companies like CNOOC Services and Haiyou Engineering due to expected high capital expenditures in offshore exploration [5][12].

（根據公司條例在香港註冊成立的有限責任公司） 股票代號：00883（港幣櫃台）及 80883（人民幣櫃台） 中國海洋石油有限公司（「本公司」）董事會（「董事會」）宣佈將於二零二六年三月二十六日 （星期四）召開董事會會議，董事會將於會議上通過議案，其中包括批准本公司及其附屬公司截 至二零二五年十二月三十一日止年度的全年業績，以及考慮派發末期股息之建議。 承董事會命 中國海洋石油有限公司 徐玉高 聯席公司秘書 香港，二零二六年三月十二日 董事會會議召開日期 香港交易及結算所有限公司及香港聯合交易所有限公司對本公告的內容概不負責，對其準確性 或完整性亦不發表任何聲明，並明確表示，概不對因本公告全部或任何部分內容而產生或因依 賴該等內容而引致的任何損失承擔任何責任。 於本公告刊發日期， 董事會由以下成員組成： 非執行董事 張傳江 （董事長） 王德華 執行董事 閻洪濤 穆秀平 獨立非執行董事 邱致中 林伯強 李淑賢 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Positive" outlook on the petrochemical industry, highlighting potential investment opportunities in various segments [3]. Core Insights - Global crude oil supply tightening may impact overseas refinery operations, with significant implications for the cost of raw materials and overall market dynamics [5][6]. - The Middle East, particularly the Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC) countries, plays a crucial role in global oil supply, accounting for 37% of total production and 20% of global consumption passing through the Strait of Hormuz [5][6]. - The report anticipates a shift in chemical trade dynamics in Asia, with Chinese companies likely to benefit from disruptions in Middle Eastern raw material supplies [5][13]. Summary by Sections Upstream Sector - Brent crude oil prices increased to $92.69 per barrel, a 27.88% rise week-on-week, while WTI prices reached $90.90 per barrel, up 35.63% [19]. - U.S. commercial crude oil inventories rose to 439 million barrels, with gasoline inventories decreasing to 253 million barrels [21][34]. - The number of active drilling rigs in the U.S. increased slightly to 551, while year-on-year comparisons show a significant decline [34]. Refining Sector - The Singapore refining margin for major products rose to $34.11 per barrel, indicating improved profitability for refiners [5]. - The report notes that the refining capacity utilization rate in the Middle East is projected at 79% for 2024, with potential supply shortages looming due to geopolitical tensions [8][10]. Polyester Sector - The profitability of PTA and polyester filament yarn has declined, with PTA prices showing a slight increase to 5440.83 CNY per ton [5][14]. - The report suggests that the polyester supply-demand balance is tightening, with expectations for improvement in market conditions [14]. Investment Recommendations - The report recommends investing in high-quality companies in the polyester sector, such as Tongkun Co. and Wankai New Materials, as well as major refining companies like Hengli Petrochemical and Rongsheng Petrochemical [14]. - It also highlights the potential for offshore oil service companies to benefit from increased capital expenditures in the exploration and development sector [14].