JINYU(600201) 国海证券·2024-07-09 23:00Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company, based on the recovery of industry sentiment and the improvement in the company's product structure, with new products gradually coming to market [5] Core Views - The company's pig vaccine business has seen structural optimization, with profitability rebounding from a low point The pig vaccine segment, which accounts for 57 8% of revenue in 2022, experienced a decline in gross margin from 2020 to 2022 due to intensified competition in the foot-and-mouth disease vaccine market However, with the improvement in product structure, especially the increased proportion of high-margin products such as the PCV series vaccines, the gross margin rebounded to 59 2% in 2023, with further upside potential expected [3] - The company has a rich product portfolio in the animal vaccine sector, focusing on the prevention of key animal diseases such as foot-and-mouth disease, PCV, PRRS, highly pathogenic avian influenza, and brucellosis, meeting the epidemic prevention needs of most domestic farms [7][12] - The company's performance has bottomed out, with profitability gradually recovering In 2023, the company's gross margin rebounded to 59 2%, an increase of 4 0 percentage points year-on-year, and the net profit margin rose to 17 3%, an increase of 4 2 percentage points [126] Pig Vaccine Business - The pig vaccine business has seen structural optimization, with the proportion of high-margin products such as PCV vaccines increasing, leading to a recovery in gross margin to 63 5% in H1 2023 [150] - The company's foot-and-mouth disease vaccine remains its largest pig vaccine product, accounting for 64 1% of pig vaccine revenue in 2022, while PCV vaccines (including PCV-M hyo combination vaccines) accounted for 12 6% [149] - The company's PCV vaccine revenue has grown rapidly, with sales increasing from 93 million yuan in 2020 to 161 million yuan in 2022, a compound annual growth rate of 31 8% [156] Ruminant Vaccine Business - The ruminant vaccine market has significant growth potential, with the domestic market size reaching 1 9 billion yuan in 2022 The company's ruminant vaccine revenue accounted for 25 7% of total revenue in 2022, increasing to 30 8% in H1 2023 [114][181] - The company has a strong competitive advantage in the brucellosis vaccine market, with its brucellosis vaccine batch approvals ranking among the top three in the country from 2020 to 2022 [240] - The company's new brucellosis vaccine products, such as the Brucella gene-deleted live vaccine (M5-90Δ26 strain), have been launched, and the revenue from brucellosis vaccines is expected to grow rapidly [240] Poultry Vaccine Business - The poultry vaccine business has been under pressure, with revenue from avian influenza vaccines and gross margins declining The company is focusing on improving the quality and efficiency of key products [176] - In 2022, the company's poultry vaccine revenue was 204 million yuan, with avian influenza vaccines accounting for 62 6% and non-avian influenza vaccines accounting for 37 4% [207] R&D and Innovation - The company has made significant investments in R&D, with R&D expenditures exceeding 200 million yuan for four consecutive years from 2020 to 2023, accounting for more than 13% of revenue [188] - The company has made breakthroughs in mRNA vaccine technology, with its mRNA vaccine production line passing static acceptance in March 2024 [65] - The company has a strong R&D team, with 362 R&D personnel, accounting for 22 0% of the total workforce, and 35 6% of R&D personnel holding master's degrees or higher [202] Financial Projections - The report forecasts that the company's revenue will reach 1 829 billion yuan, 2 067 billion yuan, and 2 356 billion yuan in 2024, 2025, and 2026, respectively, with year-on-year growth rates of 14 43%, 12 99%, and 13 99% [5] - Net profit attributable to the parent company is expected to be 355 million yuan, 477 million yuan, and 585 million yuan in 2024, 2025, and 2026, respectively, with year-on-year growth rates of 25 09%, 34 52%, and 22 55% [5] - The corresponding P/E ratios are 21 1x, 15 7x, and 12 8x for 2024, 2025, and 2026, respectively [5]