酒鬼酒：仍处调整期，营销转型坚定推进

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company, with expected earnings per share (EPS) of 1.23, 1.52, and 1.83 for the years 2024 to 2026 respectively, corresponding to price-to-earnings (P/E) ratios of 31.8, 25.6, and 21.3 [5][12]. Core Views - The company is currently undergoing a period of adjustment, with a significant decline in revenue and net profit expected for the first half of 2024. Total revenue is projected to be 1 billion yuan, down 35% year-on-year, and net profit is expected to be between 110 to 130 million yuan, a decrease of 74% to 69% year-on-year [3][5]. - The second quarter of 2024 shows an improvement in revenue decline compared to the previous quarter, with expected revenue of 510 million yuan, down 12% year-on-year, and net profit estimated between 37 to 57 million yuan, a decrease of 70% to 53% year-on-year [3][4]. Summary by Sections Performance Overview - The company anticipates a total revenue of 2.651 billion yuan for 2024, reflecting a 6.3% decrease, followed by a recovery with projected growth of 15.3% and 14.1% in 2025 and 2026 respectively [9]. - The net profit forecast for 2024 is 398 million yuan, a decline of 27.3%, with subsequent increases of 24.1% and 20.5% in 2025 and 2026 [9]. Operational Analysis - The company is focusing on deepening its domestic market presence and establishing model markets, with recent initiatives in cities like Yiyang and others in Hebei province [4]. - The marketing transformation is ongoing, with an increase in sales expense ratio expected due to upfront costs associated with this transition [4]. Financial Projections - The report projects a decline in gross profit margin due to changes in product mix and increased competition from lower-priced products [4]. - The estimated net profit margin for Q2 2024 is between 7.2% and 11.2%, indicating a decline from previous periods [4]. Valuation Metrics - The company's stock price is currently at 39.00 yuan, with a projected P/E ratio of 31.8 for 2024, which reflects the anticipated earnings decline [6][9]. - The report indicates a significant reduction in net profit estimates for 2024 to 2026, with adjustments of 33%, 30%, and 30% respectively [5].