中国动力：柴油机量价齐升，公司1H24利润高增

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Accumulate" rating for the company [2] Core Views - The company is expected to achieve a significant increase in profits for the first half of 2024, with a projected net profit of 459-516 million RMB, representing a year-on-year increase of 60%-80% [2][4] - The growth is attributed to the expansion of the shipbuilding industry, increased sales of marine low-speed engines, and higher order prices and gross margins for key products [2][4] - The company benefits from its strong position as a leading manufacturer of marine low-speed diesel engines, backed by the China Shipbuilding Group, enhancing its order certainty [2][4] - The report highlights the company's advanced dual-fuel engine technology, which is expected to improve its order intake capabilities [2][4] - The increase in engine prices and the decline in steel prices are anticipated to further enhance the company's profitability [2][4] Summary by Sections Performance Analysis - The company expects a net profit of 4.59-5.16 billion RMB for 1H24, a year-on-year increase of 1.72-2.30 billion RMB [2] - The projected net profit after deducting non-recurring items is 3.83-4.37 billion RMB, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 2.46-3.01 billion RMB [2] - The growth is driven by the shipbuilding industry's positive development and increased sales of high-margin products [2][4] Market Position and Technology - The company holds a 78% market share in domestic low-speed diesel engines and a 39% share internationally [2] - In 2023, the company secured 560 new orders for low-speed diesel engines, a 42.5% increase year-on-year [2] - The report emphasizes the company's leading position in dual-fuel engine technology, with successful deliveries of multiple first-of-their-kind engines [2] Financial Forecast - Revenue projections for 2024-2026 are 52.64 billion RMB, 61.10 billion RMB, and 70.99 billion RMB, respectively [2][4] - Expected net profits for the same period are 1.15 billion RMB, 1.94 billion RMB, and 2.98 billion RMB, with corresponding P/E ratios of 40, 24, and 16 [2][4]