【招商机械】受瓦锡兰中速船改燃催化，中国动力继续拉涨 短期催化： 北美电荒背景下，BYOG（离网主电源）为重要解决方案，中速燃气发动机并联，正成为北美部分替代燃机的选 择。 为什么市场炒中国动力？ 北美电荒背景下，BYOG（离网主电源）为重要解决方案，中速燃气发动机并联，正成为北美部分替代燃机的选 择。 相比柴油机，天然气发动机需增加火花塞、减压阀等部件，且对#喷射、共轨系统的技术要求更高。 为什么市场炒中国动力？ 中船柴油机是中国动力核心控股公司，该公司的核心工厂包括齐耀、中船发动机，#是2021年瓦锡兰中速机在国内 唯二授权商（通过齐耀瓦锡兰、中船瓦锡兰运营）！而瓦锡兰的50SG中速机是最确定有先例的改燃中速机。 此外，中船柴油机还有陕柴大发、陕柴曼恩，分别获DAIHATSU和曼恩的授权。 #2021年中船体系的中速机制造产能占全国45%。 中速船机改燃具备理论上的可行性： 1）#燃料具备共通性：低速机在推进双燃料，中速机同样可适用柴油、天然气。 中船柴油机是中国动力核心控股公司，该公司的核心工厂包括齐耀、中船发动机，#是2021年瓦锡兰中速机在国内 唯二授权商（通过齐耀瓦锡兰、中船瓦锡兰运营）！而瓦锡兰 ...

1月28日，全球动力电池龙头宁德时代午后异动，迅速翻红，量能同步放大。截止下午收盘股价报339.99元，市值约1.5万亿。 消息面上，花旗发布研报，称宁德时代迎来良好买入机会，维持长期积极展望，给与宁德时代A股目标价571元，H股621港元，较目前股价有68%和31%的 上涨空间。 值得注意的是，近期锂价飙升，碳酸锂主力合约从去年最低5.84万元/吨，近期最高飙升至18.94万元/吨。今日碳酸锂高位盘整，早盘一度涨近6%，随后跳 水，收盘大跌3.90%。 根据花旗报告，尽管短期面临成本上涨与需求波动的压力，宁德时代当前股价反而提供了买入机会。 自2025年9月预判电池价格进入上行周期以来，磷酸铁锂（LFP）电池电芯价格上涨8%，电池成本飙升30%，导致行业利润率承压。锂价年初至今已上涨 46%，叠加铜、铝等金属价格走强，进一步挤压了电池厂商的利润空间。但相对而言，由于宁德时代更早施行原材料价格联动机制，可以相对定价权较弱的 同业更为及时充实传导成本波动。 需求方面，花旗认为未来几个月的动力电池需求可能面临测试，但上修了对储能电池需求的预测，因此维持全年总电池需求预测30%+的增速基本不变。基 于此，花旗对宁德 ...

Core Insights - The report emphasizes the ongoing prosperity in the commercial aerospace and military sectors, highlighting opportunities in overseas markets and the importance of technological advancements in the industry [2][3] Group 1: Industry Overview - The commercial aerospace sector is experiencing upward momentum, driven by SpaceX's advancements in reusable rocket technology, which could reduce space access costs by 100 times [13] - The military aviation sector is expected to benefit from increased demand for large aircraft and military trade, with significant growth anticipated in 2026 [14] - The report identifies a focus on supply chain reforms and the integration of AI technologies as key trends shaping the future of the defense and aerospace industries [15] Group 2: Investment Recommendations - The report recommends companies that align with the "S-curve" evolution, focusing on supply chain reforms and automation, including firms like航发动力 (Aero Engine Corporation) and 中航沈飞 (AVIC Shenyang Aircraft Corporation) [15] - Companies positioned for expansion in military trade and civil aviation, such as 国睿科技 (Guorui Technology) and 中国动力 (China Power), are highlighted for their growth potential [15] - Emerging industries like commercial aerospace, AI, and quantum computing are also recommended, with firms like 睿创微纳 (Ruichuang Micro-Nano) and 菲利华 (Feilihua) noted for their innovative capabilities [15] Group 3: Company Valuations and Financial Analysis - 航发动力 (Aero Engine Corporation) is projected to have a 2025E EPS of 0.22 CNY, with a PE ratio of 216.82 for 2025 [6] - 中航高科 (AVIC High-tech) is expected to achieve a 2025E EPS of 0.90 CNY, with a PE ratio of 29.16 for 2025 [6] - The report provides detailed financial metrics for various companies, indicating growth in EPS and improvements in PE ratios across the sector, reflecting a positive outlook for the defense and aerospace industries [6]

行业深度研究 | 航海装备Ⅱ 船舶：国家队破局高端，民企新秀势头强劲 船舶行业系列报告之一 摘要内容 回顾 2025 年，受多重因素叠加影响，全球新船市场交易节奏放缓：一边是 新船价格持续处于相对高位，另一边是航运运价相对低迷，形成价格错位； 同时，美国加征关税及相关 301 调查带来的贸易限制与不确定性，则进一步 加剧了船东的观望情绪。而转机在于，2025 年 11 月 9 日，美国贸易代表办 公室（USTR）已宣布暂停一年对中国针对海运、物流和造船行业以获取主 导地位的 301 调查行动。 展望 2026 年，全球各主要船型景气度预计向好：1）集装箱船：密切关注红 海复航情况，支线型集装箱船有望成为亮点；2）散货船：2025 年 11 月投 产的西芒杜铁矿预计在未来几年内将重塑全球铁矿石的贸易流向，并为散货 航运市场带来增长；3）油轮：OPEC+已逐步开启增产，美制裁俄导致运力 供需紧张。 重点标的分析： 中国船舶：中国船舶是中国船舶集团有限公司核心军民品主业上市公司，下 属有江南造船、大连船舶、武昌船舶、广船国际、外高桥造船和澄西船舶修 造等 22 家子公司。沪东中华后续亦承诺三年内注入上市公司主体。中 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a positive outlook on the shipping industry, recommending companies such as China Merchants Energy and COSCO Shipping Energy [3]. Core Insights - The report highlights a significant increase in charter rates for VLCCs, which rose by 4.62% to $62,250 per day, and Cape rates increased by 5.37% to $26,475 per day, indicating a strong correlation between commodity prices and shipping rates [3]. - New ship prices are rising alongside second-hand ship prices, with the new ship composite index increasing by 0.07 to 184.76 points, suggesting a favorable market for shipbuilders [3]. - The report emphasizes the resilience of the shipping market, particularly in oil and bulk shipping, with expectations of continued demand driven by geopolitical factors and commodity price fluctuations [3]. Summary by Sections Shipping Market Performance - The shipping index increased by 1.76%, outperforming the CSI 300 index by 2.38 percentage points [4]. - The coastal dry bulk freight index in China rose by 0.84%, while the Shanghai export container freight index fell by 7.39% [4]. Oil Shipping - VLCC rates are currently around $100,000 per day, with a recent decline of 11% in average rates to $105,090 per day, indicating potential volatility in the market [3]. - The report notes that while VLCC rates may adjust, smaller oil tanker rates remain supported due to high demand [3]. Dry Bulk Shipping - The report indicates a rebound in dry bulk rates, particularly driven by increased grain exports from South America, with the BDI index recording a 12.4% increase [3]. - Capesize rates increased by 16.1%, reflecting strong demand in the Pacific market [3]. Container Shipping - The report observes a seasonal decline in container shipping rates as the peak season ends, with the SCFI index dropping by 7.4% [3]. - The resumption of services in the Red Sea has been noted, but the market remains cautious due to geopolitical uncertainties [3]. Air Transportation - The report highlights a significant supply constraint in aircraft manufacturing, with an aging fleet and increasing passenger demand expected to enhance airline profitability [3]. - Airlines are recommended for investment due to their strong demand elasticity and potential for significant earnings growth [3]. Logistics and Express Delivery - The report anticipates a concentration of market share and profits among leading express delivery companies, with a focus on ZTO Express and YTO Express [3]. - The logistics sector shows resilience, with steady growth in freight volumes reported [3].

本期内容提要：中船集团知乎号获评2025年度影响力政务号；广船国际两船接连完工交付；中船资管 （北京）公司召开2026年度工作会暨党建工作会；中船风帆举办1月职工集体生日会；外高桥造船喜迎 今冬初雪。 | 来 源：中船集团新闻宣传中心/中国船舶报社 | 一 审：曹山泉 | 二 审：项 丽 | 三 审：甘丰录 | 责 编：方 浩/王润超 ...

中国动力 20260122 摘要 中国动力近期的接单情况表现良好，尤其是船舶行业的回暖对其产生了积极影 响。中国动力在 2025 年订单同比增长，主要得益于其双燃料电池产品结构优 化。尽管 2025 年船舶行业整体下滑 24%，中国动力仍实现了订单增长。这一 现象反映了公司产品在环保方面的优势。目前双燃料电池渗透率约为 40%，未 来有望进一步提升。此外，2025 年 10 月中美领导人会面后，301 调查暂停， 使得 12 月份新签订单同比增长 78%，散货船订单同比增长 125%，油船订单 同比增长 74%。这些数据表明船舶行业已开始回暖。 中国动力目前的财务状况如何？未来盈利预期是什么？ 截至 2024 年底，中国动力市值约 500 多亿人民币，其中现金余额为 433 亿人 民币。预计到 2026 年，公司归母净利润将达到 30 亿人民币。如果核心资产 中船柴油机计划通过收并购扩大持股比例，预计使用自有资金和可转债 完成收购，虽募资规模影响不大，但能显著增加利润，优化方案后一次 性收购方案被认为合理。 中国动力拥有燃气轮机资产，与头部厂商合作，中速船舶发动机改造为 燃气轮机项目潜力巨大，北美缺电背景下， ...

Core Viewpoint - The China Shipbuilding sector has shown a positive performance with a 2.73% increase, ranking 10th among concept sectors, driven by significant gains in stocks such as China Shipbuilding Defense and China Power [1][2]. Group 1: Market Performance - As of January 22, the China Shipbuilding sector saw 9 stocks rise, with China Shipbuilding Defense, China Power, and China Marine Defense leading with increases of 7.49%, 7.30%, and 2.85% respectively [1]. - The top-performing concept sectors included domestic aircraft carriers with a 3.82% increase and combustible ice at 3.57%, while the China Shipbuilding sector followed closely with a 2.73% rise [2]. Group 2: Capital Inflow - The China Shipbuilding sector experienced a net capital inflow of 742 million yuan, with 9 stocks receiving inflows, and 6 stocks exceeding 10 million yuan in net inflow [2]. - China Shipbuilding led the inflow with 491 million yuan, followed by China Shipbuilding Defense and China Power with inflows of 142 million yuan and 36.77 million yuan respectively [2][3]. Group 3: Capital Flow Ratios - The top stocks by net capital inflow ratio included China Shipbuilding at 10.70%, China Shipbuilding Defense at 8.18%, and Kunshan Intelligent at 6.45% [3]. - The trading turnover rates for these stocks were also notable, with China Shipbuilding at 1.69% and China Shipbuilding Defense at 6.32% [3].

| 代码 | 名称 | 张唱 | 总金额 | 总市值 | 现价 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 601106 中国一直 | | +10.10% | 9.80 乙 | 373.7 Z | 5.45 | | 000927 | 中国铁物 | +10.07% | 4.65 Z | 178.5 Z | 2.95 | | 601608 | 中信重工 | +10.04% | 5.77 乙 | 366.4 乙 | 8.00 | | 601611 | 中国核建 | +9.38% | 11.55 Z | 541.9 Z | 17.98 | | 200238 | 中国软件 | +8.25% | 19.95 61 | 486.817 | 52.13 | | 000066 | 中国长城 | +5.89% | 71.82 乙 | 608.7 乙 | 18.87 | | eoosea | 中稀有色 | 45.44% | 5.22 乙 | 276.01Z | 82.08 | | 920122 | 中纺标 | 44.84% | 22517 | 33.74 Z | 36.58 | | 0006 ...

| 代码 | 名称 | 涨幅号 | 总金额 | 总市值 | 现价 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 601106 | 中国一重 | +10.10% | 9.80 乙 | 373.7 Z | 5.45 | | 000927 | 中国铁物 | +10.07% | 4.65 乙 | 178.5 Z | 2.95 | | 601608 | 中信重工 | +10.04% | 5.77 Z | 366.4 乙 | 8.00 | | 601611 | 中国核建 | +9.38% | 11.55 Z | 541.9 Z | 17.98 | | 200536 | 中国软件 | +8.25% | 19.95 61 | 486.8 Z | 52.13 | | 000066 | 中国长城 | +5.89% | 71.82 7 | 608.7 Z | 18.87 | | eoosea | 中稀有色 | +5.44% | 5.22 Z | 276.0亿 | 82.08 | | 920122 | 中纺标 | +4.84% | 22517 | 33.74 Z | 36.58 | | 0006 ...