嘉友国际：业务规模增长 Q2业绩超预期

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company [1]. Core Insights - The company expects a significant increase in net profit for the first half of 2024, projecting between 746 million to 796 million RMB, representing a year-on-year growth of 48%-58% [1]. - The growth is driven by expanding business scales in markets such as Mongolia, Africa, and Central Asia, with notable increases in trade volumes and logistics operations [1]. - The company has secured a long-term coal supply agreement with MMC, enhancing its competitive edge in the coal trade [1]. - The acquisition of BHL, Zambia's largest trucking company, is expected to enhance logistics capabilities and operational efficiency in Southern Africa [1]. Summary by Sections Financial Performance - The company forecasts net profits of 1.45 billion, 1.65 billion, and 1.86 billion RMB for 2024, 2025, and 2026 respectively, up from previous estimates of 1.30 billion, 1.51 billion, and 1.69 billion RMB [1]. - Revenue is projected to grow significantly, with expected figures of 10.21 billion RMB in 2024, 11.11 billion RMB in 2025, and 11.77 billion RMB in 2026, reflecting growth rates of 45.94%, 8.79%, and 6.01% respectively [4]. Market Expansion - The bilateral trade volume between China and Mongolia reached 51.9 billion RMB in the first five months of 2024, a 14.9% increase year-on-year, contributing to the company's logistics growth in the region [1]. - In Africa, the Kasalu Port project has seen steady growth in vehicle and cargo traffic, further boosting revenue [1]. - The trade volume between China and Central Asia reached 259.6 billion RMB in the same period, with a 14.8% year-on-year increase, benefiting the company's operations in the region [1]. Strategic Developments - The company has implemented a "resource + trade + logistics" business model in the Mongolia market, which has proven effective in securing stable coal supplies [1]. - The acquisition of BHL is part of a strategy to expand logistics capacity and optimize transportation routes across Southern Africa [1].