JGJC(000799) 华泰证券·2024-07-10 06:02Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for Jiugui Liquor (000799 CH) with a target price of RMB 41.07 [1][4][6] Core Views - Jiugui Liquor's H1 2024 revenue is expected to be around RMB 1 billion, a 35% YoY decline, with Q2 revenue at RMB 510 million, down 12.3% YoY [1] - H1 2024 net profit attributable to shareholders is projected to be RMB 110-130 million, a 69%-74% YoY decrease, with Q2 net profit at RMB 37-57 million, down 54%-70% YoY [1] - The company is actively reducing inventory and focusing on mid-to-low-end products like Xiangquan, while maintaining brand value for its premium product Neican [1][2] - Jiugui Liquor is expected to continue its BC linkage and cost reform strategies, with a focus on improving sales quality and market penetration [1][2] Business Performance and Strategy - Q2 2024 revenue decline narrowed significantly compared to Q1, indicating improved terminal construction and BC linkage effectiveness [2] - Mid-to-low-end products outperformed premium products, with Xiangquan contributing significantly to revenue growth [2] - The company is focusing on deepening its presence in Hunan province while stabilizing prices in other regions [2] - Profitability in Q2 was pressured by a shift in product mix towards lower-end products and increased sales expenses for inventory reduction and consumer cultivation [3] Financial Forecasts - EPS for 2024-2026 is projected at RMB 1.08, 1.25, and 1.43, respectively, down from previous estimates of RMB 1.66, 1.93, and 2.24 [1][4] - Revenue for 2024-2026 is forecasted at RMB 2.4 billion, 2.754 billion, and 3.165 billion, respectively, with a 15.2% decline in 2024 followed by 14.78% and 14.9% growth in 2025 and 2026 [5][10] - Net profit attributable to shareholders is expected to be RMB 351.21 million, 404.63 million, and 465.45 million for 2024-2026, respectively [5][10] Valuation and Market Position - The target price of RMB 41.07 is based on a 38x PE ratio for 2024, higher than the industry average of 25x, reflecting the company's nationalization potential [1] - Jiugui Liquor's current market capitalization is RMB 12.672 billion, with a 52-week price range of RMB 38.78-106.38 [8] - The company's PE ratio for 2024 is projected at 36.08x, higher than the industry median of 24x, indicating a premium valuation [5][11]