三友化工：Q2超预期，看好粘胶Q3旺季涨价

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" and it is maintained [16] Core Views - The company is expected to see a significant increase in net profit for the first half of 2024, with an estimated net profit of approximately 336 million yuan, representing a year-on-year increase of about 117% [4] - The company is transitioning from traditional chemicals to high-value-added fine chemicals, with ongoing projects that include 200,000 tons of organic silicon monomer and 13,900 tons of high-end silicone oil [2][6] - The supply-demand situation for viscose is tight, and there is an expectation of price increases in the third quarter [6][13] Summary by Sections Financial Performance - The company reported a net profit of approximately 258 million yuan for Q2 2024, which is a year-on-year increase of about 2% and a quarter-on-quarter increase of approximately 231% [4] - The company has adjusted its net profit forecast for 2024 to 694 million yuan, with projections of 892 million yuan and 1.088 billion yuan for 2025 and 2026, respectively [6][15] Market Position and Projects - The company is a leading player in both viscose and soda ash markets, with its current price-to-book ratio at historical low levels [6] - Ongoing projects include a 100,000-ton battery-grade sodium carbonate and an 8,000-ton viscose staple fiber project, indicating a strategic shift towards fine chemicals [2][6] Price Trends and Demand - The average prices for key products in Q2 2024 showed a mixed trend, with a notable decrease in prices for soda ash and organic silicon, while the viscose price remained stable [13] - The demand for viscose staple fiber has increased significantly, with consumption reaching 1.66 million tons in the first five months of 2024, an 18.6% increase year-on-year [13]