HUAYOU COBALT(603799) 东吴证券·2024-07-10 08:30Investment Rating - Buy (Maintained) [1] Core Views - The company's 24H1 performance exceeded market expectations, with 24H1 net profit attributable to the parent company ranging from 1.5 to 1.8 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 14%-28%, and non-GAAP net profit ranging from 1.57 to 1.87 billion yuan, a year-on-year change of -15% to +2% [3] - Q2 net profit attributable to the parent company was 980-1.28 billion yuan, a year-on-year change of -8% to +20%, with a quarter-on-quarter increase of 87%-145%, and the median forecast was 1.13 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 6% and a quarter-on-quarter increase of 116% [3] - Q2 non-GAAP net profit was 1-1.3 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 19%-54%, and a quarter-on-quarter increase of 76%-129%, exceeding market expectations [3] - The company's Q2 precursor shipments increased significantly, with a year-on-year increase of about 5%, and a quarter-on-quarter increase of over 50% [3] - The company's nickel smelting business contributed significantly to profits due to higher nickel prices, with Q2 nickel shipments exceeding 20,000 tons and a net profit of over 0.4 million USD per ton, contributing 600-700 million yuan in profit [3] - The company's copper business showed significant profit elasticity, with Q2 copper product shipments of about 25,000 tons, contributing over 200 million yuan in profit [4] - The Arcadia lithium project reduced costs to 90,000-95,000 yuan (including tax), with H1 lithium carbonate shipments of about 18,000 tons, maintaining a slight profit [4] Financial Forecasts and Valuation - The company's revenue is expected to grow from 70,624 million yuan in 2024E to 94,710 million yuan in 2026E, with a year-on-year growth rate of 6.52% in 2024E, 16.54% in 2025E, and 15.07% in 2026E [2] - Net profit attributable to the parent company is expected to grow from 3,529 million yuan in 2024E to 5,741 million yuan in 2026E, with a year-on-year growth rate of 5.32% in 2024E, 29.72% in 2025E, and 25.41% in 2026E [2] - EPS is expected to grow from 2.08 yuan/share in 2024E to 3.38 yuan/share in 2026E [2] - The company's P/E ratio is expected to decrease from 10.31x in 2024E to 6.34x in 2026E [2] Business Performance - The company's precursor shipments in 24H1 are expected to exceed 55,000 tons, with a year-on-year increase of about 5%, and full-year shipments are expected to reach 170,000-180,000 tons, a year-on-year increase of over 30% [3] - The company's nickel smelting shipments in 24H1 are expected to be 80,000-90,000 tons, with the Huafei project reaching full production in March, contributing significantly to the full-year nickel smelting shipments of about 240,000 tons (equity of 130,000+ tons) [3] - The company's copper product shipments in 24H1 are expected to be about 25,000 tons, with full-year shipments expected to reach 100,000 tons, contributing 500-1,000 million yuan in profit [4] - The company's cobalt product shipments in 24H1 are expected to exceed 10,000 tons, with some profit from self-owned mines [4] Market Data - The company's closing price is 21.44 yuan, with a one-year low/high of 20.82/52.96 yuan [5] - The company's P/B ratio is 1.10x, with a circulating A-share market value of 36,155.02 million yuan and a total market value of 36,388.24 million yuan [5] Financial Data - The company's net assets per share are 19.54 yuan, with a debt-to-asset ratio of 64.58% [6] - The company's total share capital is 1,697.21 million shares, with circulating A-shares of 1,686.34 million shares [6]