春秋航空：2024年中报预增点评：Q2预计实现盈利中值5.1亿，同比+5%，看好低成本航空龙头旺季表现

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Strong Buy" rating for the company, indicating an expectation to outperform the benchmark index by over 20% in the next six months [1][19]. Core Views - The company is expected to achieve a net profit of between 12.9 billion to 13.4 billion yuan for the first half of 2024, representing a year-on-year increase of 54% to 60%, with a midpoint estimate of 13.2 billion yuan, which is a 57% increase compared to the same period in 2019 [2]. - The report highlights the strong performance of the low-cost airline sector during peak travel seasons, with significant increases in passenger volume and load factors compared to pre-pandemic levels [2][9]. - The investment recommendation is based on the company's strong cost control and leading load factors, which are expected to maintain profitability even during off-peak seasons [2]. Financial Performance Summary - The company reported a net profit of 8.1 billion yuan in Q1 2024, with an estimated profit for Q2 ranging from 4.8 billion to 5.3 billion yuan, reflecting a year-on-year change of -1% to +10% [2]. - The total revenue for 2023 is projected at 17.938 billion yuan, with expected growth rates of 24% in 2024, 12.8% in 2025, and 11.5% in 2026 [3]. - The net profit for 2024 is estimated at 3.206 billion yuan, with a year-on-year growth of 42% [3]. Operational Data Summary - For the period of April to May 2024, the Available Seat Kilometers (ASK) increased by 13.5% year-on-year, while Revenue Passenger Kilometers (RPK) rose by 16.7% [2]. - The average passenger load factor reached 90.8%, an increase of 2.5 percentage points year-on-year [2]. - The report notes that the domestic aviation market has seen a recovery in both volume and pricing compared to 2019, with significant increases in flight operations and capacity [2][9]. Valuation and Price Target - The report sets a target price of 65.5 yuan for the company's stock, representing a 21% upside from the current price of 54.10 yuan [5]. - The valuation is based on a historical average price-to-earnings (PE) ratio of 20 times for 2024, with projected earnings per share (EPS) of 3.28 yuan [2][3].