天山铝业：Q2预告归母净利环增88%，好于预期

Investment Rating - The investment rating for Tianshan Aluminum is "Buy" with a target price of 12.98 CNY per share, indicating a strong expectation for the stock to outperform the market by more than 15% over the next 12 months [1]. Core Views - The report highlights that Tianshan Aluminum is expected to see a significant increase in net profit, with a forecasted quarter-on-quarter growth of 88% in Q2 2024, driven by rising aluminum and alumina prices [1][3]. - The average aluminum price increased by 8% to 20,647 CNY per ton, while the alumina price rose by 8% to 3,633 CNY per ton, contributing to the improved performance of the electrolytic aluminum and alumina segments [1]. - The company plans to enhance the proportion of renewable energy in its electricity purchases and is actively seeking to implement compliance capacity indicators for 200,000 tons of electrolytic aluminum that have not yet been constructed [1][3]. Financial Summary - The forecasted earnings per share (EPS) for Tianshan Aluminum from 2024 to 2026 are projected to be 0.93, 0.96, and 0.98 CNY respectively, reflecting a stable low-cost advantage and improved resource security [1][3]. - The company's revenue is expected to grow significantly, with a projected increase from 28,975 million CNY in 2023 to 38,503 million CNY in 2024, representing a growth rate of 32.9% [4]. - The net profit is forecasted to rise from 2,206 million CNY in 2023 to 4,312 million CNY in 2024, indicating a growth rate of 95.5% [4][5]. Financial Ratios - The report indicates a projected price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio of 9.40 for 2024, which is expected to decrease to 8.85 by 2026, suggesting an attractive valuation relative to earnings growth [4]. - The return on equity (ROE) is expected to improve from 9.1% in 2023 to 15.9% in 2024, reflecting enhanced profitability [4][5]. - The debt-to-equity ratio is projected to decrease from 60.0% in 2023 to 54.7% in 2025, indicating improved financial stability [4].