TIANSHAN ALUMINUM(002532) 华鑫证券·2024-07-10 10:02Investment Rating - The investment rating for Tianshan Aluminum (002532.SZ) is "Buy" (maintained) [3] Core Views - Tianshan Aluminum is expected to see significant growth in its H1 2024 performance, benefiting from rising aluminum prices and stable costs. The company forecasts a net profit attributable to shareholders of 2.07 billion yuan for H1 2024, representing a year-on-year increase of 103% [5][8] - The company is actively pursuing an integrated industrial chain strategy, with ongoing projects such as a 2 million-ton alumina project in Indonesia, which is expected to enhance cost advantages [6][8] Summary by Sections Basic Data - Current stock price is 8.71 yuan, with a total market capitalization of 40.5 billion yuan and total share capital of 4,652 million shares [1][2] Performance Forecast - For H1 2024, the average selling price of aluminum ingots increased by approximately 7% year-on-year, while the average selling price of alumina rose by about 26%. The production costs for both aluminum ingots and alumina remained stable compared to the previous year [5] - The average price of A00 aluminum in the Chinese market for H1 2024 was 19,781 yuan per ton, up 6.99% year-on-year, and the average price of alumina was 3,505 yuan per ton, up 12.76% year-on-year [5] Production Goals - The company's main production targets for 2024 include: - Primary aluminum output of 1.16 million tons - Power generation of 13 billion kWh - Alumina output of 2.35 million tons - Pre-baked anode output of 550,000 tons - Bauxite output of 3 million tons - High-purity aluminum output of 25,000 tons - Aluminum foil and aluminum foil blank output of 100,000 tons [5] Project Developments - The alumina project in Indonesia is progressing smoothly, with the first phase targeting an annual capacity of 1 million tons. The project has been included in Indonesia's national strategic project list and is currently in the design phase [6] - The company is also seeking to realize a 200,000-ton electrolytic aluminum capacity indicator that has yet to be constructed [7] Earnings Forecast - Projected revenues for Tianshan Aluminum from 2024 to 2026 are 33.07 billion yuan, 35.27 billion yuan, and 38.50 billion yuan, respectively. The net profit attributable to shareholders is expected to be 4.21 billion yuan, 4.77 billion yuan, and 5.26 billion yuan for the same period. The current stock price corresponds to a PE ratio of 9.6, 8.5, and 7.7 times for the respective years [8][10]