三友化工：2024H1业绩预增公告点评：降本增效助力业绩修复，看好粘胶短纤板块盈利的进一步改善

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Recommended" rating for the company [1][6]. Core Views - The company is expected to achieve a net profit of 336 million yuan in the first half of 2024, representing a year-on-year increase of 116.77% [6]. - The company's cost reduction and efficiency improvement strategies have contributed to performance recovery, despite weak terminal demand for products [6]. - The viscose staple fiber business is anticipated to see a recovery, with market prices increasing and a favorable supply-demand dynamic [6]. Financial Summary - Revenue for 2024 is projected to be 22.685 billion yuan, with a growth rate of 3.5% [21]. - The net profit attributable to shareholders is expected to be 745 million yuan in 2024, reflecting a growth rate of 31.7% [21]. - Earnings per share (EPS) are forecasted to be 0.36 yuan for 2024, with a price-to-earnings (PE) ratio of 15 [21][23]. Profitability and Efficiency - The company's EBITDA is projected to increase from 3.344 billion yuan in 2024 to 3.480 billion yuan in 2026 [2][8]. - The net profit margin is expected to improve from 3.28% in 2023 to 4.56% in 2026 [2][8]. - The return on equity (ROE) is forecasted to rise from 4.17% in 2023 to 7.11% in 2026 [17]. Market Dynamics - The viscose staple fiber market has seen a price increase of 450 yuan per ton, reaching an average of 13,450 yuan per ton in June [6]. - The apparent consumption of viscose staple fiber in China reached 1.66 million tons by May 2023, marking a year-on-year increase of 19% [6]. - The industry is characterized by high operating rates and low inventory levels, indicating a strong operational environment [6]. Future Projections - The company’s net profit is projected to reach 7.45 billion yuan in 2024, 9.36 billion yuan in 2025, and 11.15 billion yuan in 2026 [6]. - The expected EPS for 2025 and 2026 are 0.45 yuan and 0.54 yuan, respectively [6]. - The PE ratio is anticipated to decrease to 12 in 2025 and 10 in 2026, indicating potential valuation improvement [21].