JONJEE(SH:600872) Soochow Securities·2024-07-10 23:00Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" (maintained) [1] Core Views - The company is experiencing a transitional phase due to reforms, with expectations for future benefits from these changes [3] - The company reported a revenue forecast of approximately 2.62 billion yuan for H1 2024, a year-on-year decrease of 1.3%, while the net profit attributable to shareholders is expected to be between 315 million and 378 million yuan, marking a turnaround from a loss in the previous year [2][3] - The company is actively reducing inventory to maintain healthy channel development amid weak demand caused by macroeconomic slowdown [3] - Gross margin is expected to improve year-on-year, although profit margins may be pressured due to increased expenses from intensified industry competition [3] - The company is addressing historical issues through eight optimization measures, aiming for channel management improvements and product upgrades [3] - Land disposals are ongoing, with potential revenue increases from government land requisitions expected to enhance annual performance [3] Summary by Sections Earnings Forecast and Valuation - Total revenue for 2022 was 5.34 billion yuan, with a forecast of 5.55 billion yuan for 2024, reflecting an 8.09% year-on-year growth [2] - The net profit attributable to shareholders is projected to be 700.12 million yuan in 2024, down 58.74% year-on-year [2] - The latest diluted EPS is expected to be 0.89 yuan per share in 2024, with a P/E ratio of 22.02 [2] Key Financial Metrics - The company’s operating cash flow for 2024 is estimated at 2.25 billion yuan, with a projected net profit of 711 million yuan [10] - The company’s total assets are expected to reach 7.76 billion yuan in 2024, with a debt ratio of 23.81% [9][10] - The projected gross margin for 2024 is 35.28%, with a net profit margin of 12.60% [9]