TIANSHAN ALUMINUM(SZ:002532) Guohai Securities·2024-07-10 23:00Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for Tianshan Aluminum [1] Core Views - Tianshan Aluminum is expected to achieve a year-on-year profit increase of 161% in Q2 2024, driven by stable costs and rising aluminum prices [1][4] - The company anticipates a significant growth in net profit for the first half of 2024, with a forecasted net profit of 20.7 billion yuan, representing a 103% increase year-on-year [4] - The report highlights the company's integrated operations and cost advantages due to low energy prices in Xinjiang, which are expected to enhance profitability [5][6] Financial Performance Summary - For Q2 2024, Tianshan Aluminum expects a net profit of 13.5 billion yuan, reflecting a 160.8% increase year-on-year and an 87.6% increase quarter-on-quarter [4] - The average selling price of aluminum ingots increased by approximately 7% year-on-year, while the average selling price of alumina rose by about 26% [5] - The company projects revenues of 337 billion yuan, 354 billion yuan, and 384 billion yuan for 2024, 2025, and 2026 respectively, with net profits of 42.4 billion yuan, 45.3 billion yuan, and 48.7 billion yuan [5][7] Growth Potential - Tianshan Aluminum has multiple ongoing projects, including a 200,000-ton electrolytic aluminum project and alumina projects in Indonesia and Guinea, indicating strong growth potential [5][6] - The company is expected to benefit from advanced manufacturing tax incentives and potential government subsidies, which may further enhance its financial performance [5]