BYD(SZ:002594) Guoxin Securities·2024-07-11 00:30Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Outperform the Market" (maintained) [2][5]. Core Views - The automotive industry is entering a new competitive phase, with the penetration rate of new energy vehicles expected to exceed 50% in 2024, leading to intensified competition and a price war [11][12]. - The company is positioned to benefit from its scale, globalization, and high-end product strategies, entering a new upward cycle [5][18]. Financial Forecasts and Metrics - Revenue projections (in million yuan): - 2022: 424,061 - 2023: 602,315 (+42.0%) - 2024E: 757,835 (+25.8%) - 2025E: 913,964 (+20.6%) - 2026E: 1,053,550 (+15.3%) [3] - Net profit projections (in million yuan): - 2022: 16,622 - 2023: 30,041 (+80.7%) - 2024E: 38,211 (+27.2%) - 2025E: 50,273 (+31.6%) - 2026E: 61,962 (+23.3%) [3] - Earnings per share (in yuan): - 2022: 5.71 - 2023: 10.32 - 2024E: 13.13 - 2025E: 17.27 - 2026E: 21.28 [3] - Price-to-earnings ratio (PE): - 2024E: 19.2 - 2025E: 14.6 - 2026E: 11.9 [3] Industry Overview - The new energy vehicle market in China has seen significant growth, with sales reaching 9.587 million units in 2023, a year-on-year increase of 35.8% [11]. - The market is transitioning from a high-growth phase to a more stable growth phase, characterized by increased competition and market segmentation [11][12]. Company Strategy - The company is focusing on three main strategies: 1. Strengthening its core business through competitive pricing and product diversification. 2. Expanding its presence in international markets, with significant growth in exports. 3. Advancing its high-end product offerings to capture more market share in the premium segment [18]. Valuation and Price Target - The target price for the company is set between 288.8 and 315.0 yuan, indicating a potential upside of 14% to 25% from the current price of 252.5 yuan [3][5].