酒鬼酒：2024H1预告点评：持续投入，坚定转型

Investment Rating - The report assigns an "Accumulate" rating for the company, marking the first coverage of the stock [1][3]. Core Views - The company forecasts a revenue of 1 billion yuan and a net profit attributable to shareholders between 110 to 130 million yuan for the first half of 2024, representing a year-on-year decline of 35% and 69-74% respectively [2]. - The company is committed to its transformation strategy, focusing on deepening its presence in the domestic market and developing model markets, with expectations of narrowing revenue declines in subsequent quarters [3]. - The company is experiencing a significant drop in profit margins due to increased sales expenses aimed at enhancing market penetration and consumer engagement [2][3]. Summary by Sections Financial Forecasts and Valuation - Total revenue is projected to decline from 2,830 million yuan in 2023 to 2,405 million yuan in 2024, with a year-on-year change of -15.01% [1]. - Net profit attributable to shareholders is expected to decrease from 547.81 million yuan in 2023 to 306.22 million yuan in 2024, reflecting a year-on-year decline of -44.10% [1]. - The estimated EPS for 2024 is 0.94 yuan per share, with a P/E ratio of 41.60 based on the current price [1]. Market Data - The closing price of the stock is 39.20 yuan, with a market capitalization of approximately 12,737.22 million yuan [5]. - The stock has fluctuated between a low of 37.84 yuan and a high of 110.10 yuan over the past year [5]. Operational Insights - The company is focusing on stabilizing revenue during the off-peak season, with Q2 revenue estimated at 5.1 billion yuan, showing a sequential decline from the previous quarter [2]. - The company has initiated 11 model markets and is enhancing consumer engagement through various promotional activities, leading to improved sales data [2]. - The company is adjusting its regional market strategies, prioritizing depth over breadth in its domestic market while also developing model markets in select provinces [2].