SDBH(SH:600966) Changjiang Securities·2024-07-11 01:31Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" and is maintained [8]. Core Views - The company is expected to achieve a net profit attributable to shareholders of 114 to 160 million yuan and a net profit excluding non-recurring items of 96 to 142 million yuan in the first half of 2024, indicating a turnaround from losses year-on-year [6]. - In the second quarter of 2024, the company anticipates a net profit attributable to shareholders of 14 to 60 million yuan, which represents a significant decrease of 91% to 60% year-on-year [6]. - The company is focusing on improving its profit structure by increasing the proportion of high-margin cultural paper and enhancing export sales of differentiated, high-value-added products [7]. - The company is also implementing cost reduction and efficiency improvement measures, aiming to lower product consumption and advance projects related to water treatment and alkali recovery [7]. Summary by Sections Performance Outlook - The company expects stable sales growth in Q2 2024, driven by market share expansion and increased exports, with a focus on white cardboard and cultural paper [18]. - The average profit per ton is projected to be marginally profitable, with a slight decline due to falling paper prices and rising costs [18]. - The company anticipates a demand recovery in the third quarter, particularly for cultural paper and boxboard, which may lead to improved paper prices and profitability [19]. Financial Projections - The company forecasts net profits of 550 million yuan, 980 million yuan, and 1.08 billion yuan for 2024, 2025, and 2026, respectively, corresponding to price-earnings ratios of 11, 6, and 6 times [19]. - Revenue is projected to grow from 18.693 billion yuan in 2023 to 24.254 billion yuan in 2026, with gross profit margins improving from 11% to 14% over the same period [26].