GDPD(SH:600795) Changjiang Securities·2024-07-11 01:31Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company [6]. Core Views - The company is expected to achieve a net profit attributable to shareholders of 6.4 billion to 6.8 billion yuan in the first half of 2024, representing a year-on-year increase of 114.22% to 127.61%. However, the net profit after deducting non-recurring gains and losses is projected to be 1.8 billion to 2.2 billion yuan, a decrease of 33.11% to 18.25% year-on-year [4][5]. - The increase in hydropower generation is expected to contribute positively to the company's performance, while the decline in electricity prices is primarily due to structural impacts [4]. - The company has seen a steady increase in new energy installations, with hydropower generation reaching 165.2 billion kWh in the second quarter, a year-on-year growth of 59.32% [4][5]. - The average on-grid electricity price in the second quarter was 423.1 yuan/MWh, a decrease of 25.81 yuan/MWh year-on-year, mainly due to the increased proportion of low-cost clean energy [4][5]. Summary by Sections Financial Performance - The company reported a net profit of 46.15 billion to 50.15 billion yuan in the second quarter, a year-on-year increase of 128.14% to 147.91% [5]. - The decrease in net profit after deducting non-recurring gains and losses is attributed to impairment provisions and weak wind conditions affecting new energy performance [5]. - The company expects earnings per share (EPS) for 2024-2026 to be 0.68 yuan, 0.56 yuan, and 0.62 yuan, with corresponding price-to-earnings (PE) ratios of 8.87, 10.81, and 9.71 [5][6]. Operational Insights - The company’s coal prices have decreased, with the average price of coal at Qinhuangdao Port being 848.45 yuan/ton, down 65.96 yuan/ton year-on-year, which is expected to alleviate the pressure on profitability from declining thermal power output [5]. - The company’s hydropower investment is anticipated to be a significant contributor to performance growth, with stable costs associated with hydropower generation [5]. - The company is expected to enter a production cycle for its 3.52 million kW hydropower units in the second half of 2025, indicating a positive medium-term outlook despite potential short-term fluctuations [5].