东鹏饮料:2024年中报预告点评:再超预期,尽显稀缺

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Strong Buy" rating for the company, indicating an expectation to outperform the benchmark index by over 20% in the next six months [12]. Core Insights - The company is projected to achieve revenue of 7.86-8.08 billion yuan in H1 2024, representing a year-on-year growth of 43.95%-47.98%. The net profit attributable to shareholders is expected to be between 1.55-1.68 billion yuan, with a growth rate of 47.5%-54.9% [2]. - The report highlights strong sales momentum, with channel inventory at a historical low, and anticipates continued high growth in revenue driven by national expansion and increased product exposure [2][4]. - Gross margin is expected to improve due to cost optimization and increased scale effects, with a notable decrease in sugar prices contributing to cost benefits [2][4]. - The company is expected to maintain robust growth in the second half of the year, supported by low channel inventory and ongoing market expansion efforts [2][4]. Financial Summary - Revenue projections for 2024E are set at 15.77 billion yuan, with a year-on-year growth rate of 40.0%. Net profit is forecasted at 2.88 billion yuan, reflecting a growth rate of 41.0% [5]. - The company’s earnings per share (EPS) is expected to rise to 7.19 yuan in 2024, with a projected price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio of 29 [5]. - Key financial ratios indicate a gross margin of 43.5% and a net margin of 18.2% for 2024E, showcasing strong profitability [5].