Runben Biotechnology (603193) 国泰君安·2024-07-11 02:31Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company with a target price of 21.32 CNY, reflecting an upward adjustment in earnings forecasts for 2024-2026 [2][4]. Core Insights - The company is expected to achieve a net profit of 175-185 million CNY for H1 2024, representing a year-on-year increase of 46%-55%. The growth is driven by high performance in Douyin and distribution channels, particularly in products like timed mosquito repellent and Xiaotaoxi cream [2][4]. - The company has a rich pipeline of new products for H2 2024, which is anticipated to sustain high growth trends, especially in the baby care segment [2][4]. - Long-term growth potential is supported by the company's competitive pricing strategy and channel expansion, positioning it as a leading domestic brand in personal care and baby products [2][4]. Financial Summary - Revenue is projected to grow from 1,033 million CNY in 2023 to 1,344 million CNY in 2024, reflecting a 30.2% increase. Net profit is expected to rise from 226 million CNY in 2023 to 309 million CNY in 2024, a growth of 36.9% [12]. - The earnings per share (EPS) is forecasted to increase from 0.56 CNY in 2023 to 0.76 CNY in 2024 [12]. - The company maintains a high gross margin of 56.3% in 2023, expected to improve to 58.1% in 2024 [12]. Market Data - The company's market capitalization stands at 7,315 million CNY, with a current share price of 18.08 CNY [14]. - The stock has traded within a range of 12.45-22.08 CNY over the past 52 weeks [14]. Product and Channel Performance - The Douyin channel is projected to see a GMV growth of 50%-100%, with Q2 growth accelerating compared to Q1 due to optimized strategies and strong product sales [2][4]. - The company has successfully launched new products in the mosquito repellent and baby care categories, which are expected to drive further revenue growth [2][4]. Long-term Outlook - The company is well-positioned to benefit from trends favoring cost-effective products and channel expansion, with significant growth potential in the personal care and baby product sectors [2][4].