数据来源：聚源 -24% -12% 0% 12% 24% 36% 2025-03 2025-07 2025-11 商贸零售 沪深300 商贸零售 2026 年 03 月 22 日 投资评级：看好（维持） 行业走势图 相关研究报告 《2026 年 1-2 月社零同比+2.8%，春节 消 费 稳 健 恢 复 — 行 业 点 评 报 告 》 -2026.3.17 《逸仙电商获 1.2 亿美元投资，老铺黄 金业绩预告高增 — 行 业 周 报 》 -2026.3.15 《38 大促国货美妆表现亮眼，上美股 份发布盈喜预告 — 行 业 周 报 》 -2026.3.8 京东 Joybuy 欧洲上线，自营模式打开差异化空间 ——行业周报 | 黄泽鹏（分析师） | 李昕恬（分析师） | | --- | --- | | huangzepeng@kysec.cn | lixintian@kysec.cn | | 证书编号：S0790519110001 | 证书编号：S0790526030002 | lixintian@kysec.cn 证书编号：S0790526030002 跨境电商平台 Joybuy 上线，自营模式布局差异化竞争 ...

同比+5.1%，跑赢社零大盘1.4pct、较2024年显著回暖，其中25H1、25H2分别同比增长2.9%、7.3%， 下半年行业增速改善明显 2 / CONTENTS 3 / 01 02 03 04 05 4 / 01 美妆大盘：化妆品增速回暖跑赢社零，线上天猫回暖、抖音降速 • 2025年化妆品社零同比增长5.1%跑赢社零，线上天猫、抖音平台增速收敛。据国家统计局，2025年限额以上单位化妆品累 零售额4653亿元，同比+5.1%，跑赢社零大盘1.4pct、较2024年显著回暖，其中25H1、25H2分别同比增长2.9%、7.3%， 下半年行业增速改善明显。重点线上平台方面，据久谦数据，2025年天猫、抖音美妆大盘分别同比+2%、+16%，抖音依 然为主要增量渠道，但2025Q3起线上渠道格局逐渐生变，25Q3天猫、抖音美妆个护品类分别同比+8%、+8%，两核心平 台增速收敛，且这一趋势延续至Q4，我们判断主要因天猫平台在即时零售的拉动下增速呈回暖态势，而抖音随着规模增 大、达播趋弱，增速有所放缓，电商渠道格局趋于稳定。 01 品类趋势：彩妆、个护品类增长强于护肤，个护新品牌破局 • 2025年彩妆、个护 ...

Group 1 - The beauty and personal care sector has shown a slight decline of 0.4% since the beginning of 2026, with significant stock performance variation among key players, ranging from -27.3% to 35.6% [4][12] - The cosmetics market is characterized by intense competition, with domestic brands making significant advancements in R&D and distribution, while international brands are adapting with localized products and flexible marketing strategies [4][20] - The medical beauty sector is witnessing a surge in new products and innovations, with a focus on affordable and specialized offerings, positioning domestic companies to compete effectively against foreign counterparts [4][48] Group 2 - The e-commerce operation segment is undergoing a transformation, with companies like RuYuchen and YiWangYiChuang leveraging self-owned brands and AI to create new growth trajectories [4][43] - Key recommendations for investment include brands with strong channel and product matrices such as MaoGePing and ShangMei, as well as companies like AiMeiKe and LangZi in the medical beauty space [4][45] - The report emphasizes the importance of promotional events like 618 and Double 11, which are critical for brand visibility and sales growth in the competitive online landscape [4][37] Group 3 - The skincare and makeup market is expected to enter a consolidation phase, with strong brands likely to thrive while weaker ones may struggle, particularly in segments like fragrance and hair care [20][21] - Domestic brands are increasingly capturing market share from international brands, with a notable decline in the latter's market presence over recent years [22][27] - The report highlights the strategic importance of product innovation and family series development, as seen with brands like Peiliya, which successfully extend their product lines to enhance sales [28][30]

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the retail industry is "Positive" (maintained) [1] Core Insights - The report highlights the strong performance of domestic brands during the 38 promotional event, with significant sales figures and consumer demand for effective skincare products [23][25] - The report emphasizes the importance of emotional consumption themes and recommends high-quality companies in high-growth sectors [6][30][31] Summary by Sections Retail and Social Services Market Review - The retail and social services indices reported declines of 3.91% and 3.63% respectively during the week of March 2 to March 6, 2026 [5][15] - Year-to-date, the retail index has decreased by 6.82%, while the social services index has increased by 3.01% [15][16] Industry Dynamics - Domestic brands performed well during the 38 promotional event, with leading brands like Proya achieving significant sales [23] - The report notes that the skincare product category is seeing strong demand, particularly for effective and functional products [23][25] Investment Recommendations - Investment focus areas include: - **Gold and Jewelry**: Recommend brands with differentiated product offerings such as Laopuhuang and Chaohongji [6][30] - **Offline Retail**: Highlight companies adapting to trends like Yonghui Supermarket and Aiyingshi [6][30] - **Cosmetics**: Focus on brands that meet emotional value and safety innovation, recommending brands like Maogeping and Proya [6][31] - **Medical Aesthetics**: Suggest companies with differentiated products and expanding chains, such as Meilitiantian Medical Health and Aimeike [6][31] Company Performance Highlights - **Shangmei Co.**: Expected revenue of 9.1-9.2 billion yuan for 2025, with a year-on-year growth of 34.0%-35.4% [27] - **Zhou Dafu**: Achieved a retail value increase of 17.8% year-on-year in Q3 2026 [32] - **Yonghui Supermarket**: Anticipated revenue decline but undergoing significant operational adjustments [32]

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the retail industry is "Positive" (maintained) [1] Core Insights - The report highlights the strong performance of domestic brands during the 38 promotional event, with significant sales figures and consumer demand for effective skincare products [23][25] - The report emphasizes the importance of emotional consumption themes and recommends high-quality companies in high-growth sectors [6][30][31] Summary by Sections Retail and Social Services Market Review - The retail and social services indices reported declines of 3.91% and 3.63% respectively during the week of March 2 to March 6, 2026, ranking 25th and 23rd among 31 primary industries [5][15] - Year-to-date, the retail index has decreased by 6.82%, while the social services index has increased by 3.01% [12][15] Industry Dynamics - The 38 promotional event saw domestic brands excel, with significant sales figures reported from live streaming platforms [23][25] - Key brands such as Pechoin and Betainy led in product selection and sales performance during the promotional period [23][24] Investment Recommendations - Investment focus areas include: - Gold and jewelry brands with differentiated product offerings, recommending companies like Laopuhuangjin and Chaohongji [6][30] - Offline retail companies adapting to market changes, recommending Yonghui Supermarket and Aiyingshi [6][30] - Domestic beauty brands that emphasize emotional value and innovative ingredients, recommending Maogeping and Shangmei [6][31] - Medical aesthetics firms with differentiated products, recommending Meilitiantian and Aimeike [6][31] Company Performance Highlights - Shangmei Co. is projected to achieve revenues of 9.1-9.2 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 34.0%-35.4%, with net profits expected to reach 1.14-1.16 billion yuan, up 41.9%-44.4% [27][29] - Zhou Dafu reported a retail value increase of 17.8% year-on-year for FY2026Q3, driven by product structure optimization [32]

每日经济新闻 每经头条（nbdtoutiao）——伤亡180万人！俄乌冲突四周年，陷入谈判死局、战场僵局、经济困局！谁 为战争买单 每经AI快讯，东莞证券2月25日发布研报称，给予润本股份（603193.SH）"买入"评级。评级理由主要包 括：1）品类聚焦，业绩稳健；2）行业空间广阔，增长确定性高；3）研产销一体化构筑长期竞争壁 垒。风险提示：市场竞争风险、投流税政策变化风险、新品推广不及预期风险、产品质量与合规风险。 免责声明：本文内容与数据仅供参考，不构成投资建议，使用前请核实。据此操作，风险自担。 （记者 曾健辉） ...

Investment Rating - The report assigns a "Buy" rating for Runben Co., Ltd. (603193) as a new benchmark in the maternal and infant care sector [1]. Core Insights - Runben Co., Ltd. has shown steady performance with a focus on the baby mosquito repellent market, gradually expanding into baby care and plant essential oils, forming a multi-category daily chemical ecosystem. The core categories of mosquito repellent and baby care account for over 85% of revenue, driving continuous growth in revenue and profit [7][24]. - The global and Chinese markets for mosquito repellent and baby care products are expected to grow steadily, with the children's mosquito repellent market projected to reach 1.795 billion yuan by 2024, and the baby care market expected to reach 32.9 billion yuan in the same year [7][40]. - Runben's integrated research, production, and sales model creates long-term competitive barriers, with plans to invest 700 million yuan in smart factories and 600 million yuan to expand R&D and production bases [7][24]. Summary by Sections 1. Business Growth and Performance - Runben Co., Ltd. has transitioned from a single-category brand focused on mosquito repellent to a multi-scenario daily chemical enterprise, leveraging user assets and integrated operations [16]. - The company has achieved a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 31.32% in revenue from 582 million yuan in 2021 to 1.318 billion yuan in 2024, with net profit increasing from 121 million yuan to 300 million yuan in the same period [7][24]. - The revenue structure is concentrated, with the baby care segment's share increasing from 37.22% in 2021 to 52.36% in 2024, while the mosquito repellent segment stabilized between 31% and 33% [22]. 2. Industry Landscape and Trends - The global children's mosquito repellent market is expected to grow at a CAGR of 4.26% from 2023 to 2027, while the Chinese market is projected to grow at approximately 6.1% during the same period [7][33]. - The baby care market in China is anticipated to reach 32.9 billion yuan by 2024, with a CAGR of 7.97% from 2023 to 2027, indicating strong growth potential [40][42]. - The competitive landscape in the mosquito repellent market shows a concentration of top brands, with the top 10 brands holding significant market shares, reflecting a strong competitive environment [34]. 3. Competitive Advantages - Runben Co., Ltd. maintains a high sales net profit margin, with figures ranging from 18.69% to 22.77% from 2021 to 2025, indicating strong operational control and market positioning [54]. - The company has a superior inventory turnover efficiency, with inventory turnover days decreasing to 66.29 days in 2025, showcasing effective supply chain management [57]. - The accounts receivable turnover days are also favorable, with a notable efficiency in cash collection, primarily due to the online direct sales model [58].

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is "Positive" (maintained) [1] Core Viewpoints - The report highlights a steady recovery in consumer spending during the Spring Festival, with significant increases in payment transactions and retail sales compared to the previous year [4][26] - The report emphasizes the importance of high-quality companies in high-growth sectors driven by emotional consumption themes [7][35] Summary by Sections Industry Dynamics - The Spring Festival saw a robust recovery in social consumption, with payment transactions on New Year's Eve reaching 4.931 billion, a 21.64% increase from the previous year [4][26] - Key regions like Hainan and cities such as Tianjin and Zhenjiang showed strong performance in retail and dining, with Hainan's duty-free shopping amounting to 1.03 billion yuan, up 20.9% year-on-year [4][27] - Domestic travel orders surged by 60%, and outbound travel orders increased by over 180% during the holiday period [4][26] Investment Recommendations - Investment Theme 1: Focus on high-end gold and fashion jewelry brands, recommending companies like Laopai Gold and Chaohongji for their differentiated product offerings [7][35] - Investment Theme 2: Emphasize retail companies adapting to trends and AI-enabled cross-border e-commerce leaders, with recommendations for Yonghui Supermarket and Aiyingshi [7][35] - Investment Theme 3: Highlight domestic beauty brands that cater to emotional value and innovative safe ingredients, recommending brands like Maogeping and Proya [7][35] - Investment Theme 4: Focus on differentiated medical beauty product manufacturers and leading medical beauty institutions, recommending companies like Meilitiantian Medical Health and Aimeike [7][35] Market Performance - The retail and social service indices reported declines of 1.59% and 0.78% respectively during the week from February 9 to February 13, 2026 [6][15] - The report notes that the education sector saw the highest growth among sub-sectors, while the watch and jewelry sector led the year-to-date performance with an 11.29% increase [6][18] Company Highlights - Laopai Gold reported a significant revenue increase of 250.9% in the first half of FY2025, driven by strong consumer demand and brand expansion [37] - Chaohongji is expected to achieve a net profit growth of 125% to 175% in FY2025, supported by its differentiated product strategy [37] - Maogeping and Proya are highlighted for their strong performance in the beauty sector, with Maogeping achieving a revenue increase of 31.3% in FY2025 [37]

Investment Rating - The report indicates a positive outlook for the cosmetics and medical beauty sector, with strong performance compared to the market [2][3]. Core Insights - Estee Lauder reported double-digit growth in China, with net sales reaching RMB 29.35 billion, a year-on-year increase of 6%, and profits improving by 127% to RMB 1.12 billion [8][26]. - The Tmall beauty category saw a significant increase of 24% year-on-year in January 2026, indicating strong consumer demand and confidence in the market [8][29]. - The report highlights the government's focus on promoting service consumption, which is expected to drive growth in key sectors, including beauty and personal care [9][10]. Summary by Sections Industry Performance - The cosmetics and medical beauty sector outperformed the market, with the Shenwan Beauty Care Index rising by 3.7% from January 30 to February 6, 2026 [3]. - The Shenwan Cosmetics Index increased by 2.8%, outperforming the Shenwan A Index by 4.4 percentage points [3]. Company Highlights - Estee Lauder's sales in mainland China surged by 13% to RMB 6.44 billion, confirming the recovery of international beauty brands in the Chinese market [8][26]. - The report notes that the top-performing stocks in the sector included Betaini (+13.5%), Huaxi Biological (+12.0%), and Beijia Clean (+10.8%) [4]. E-commerce Insights - The report provides data on the performance of domestic brands on platforms like Douyin and Tmall, showing significant growth in GMV for several brands [20]. - For instance, the brand "毛戈平" saw a GMV increase of 298% in December 2025 [21]. Market Trends - The overall retail sales of cosmetics in December 2025 grew by 8.8%, with a total retail sales figure of RMB 465.3 billion for the year, reflecting a steady recovery in consumer spending [22][23]. - The report emphasizes the shift in consumer preferences towards personalized and high-quality products, indicating a strategic opportunity for brands to innovate [10][11].

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is "Positive" (maintained) [1] Core Views - The report highlights Meituan's acquisition of Dingdong Maicai for approximately $717 million, aiming to enhance its instant retail supply chain efficiency. Dingdong Maicai has achieved profitability for 12 consecutive quarters and operates over 1,000 front warehouses in China, with a monthly purchasing user base exceeding 7 million [4][24][27] - The report emphasizes the importance of supply chain efficiency and product quality in the competitive landscape of the instant retail industry, suggesting that the focus will shift towards these aspects post-acquisition [27] Summary by Sections Industry Dynamics - Meituan's acquisition of Dingdong Maicai is expected to create synergies in supply chain, regional layout, and warehouse scale, enhancing operational efficiency in the East China region [24][27] - Dingdong Maicai's established direct sourcing and self-operated production capabilities are anticipated to be preserved and amplified within Meituan's platform [27] Investment Themes - Investment Theme 1: Focus on high-end and fashionable gold jewelry brands, recommending companies like Laopuhuangjin and Chaohongji, which are expected to benefit from the emotional consumption trend [6][29] - Investment Theme 2: Emphasize retail companies adapting to trends and AI-enabled cross-border e-commerce leaders, with recommendations for Yonghui Supermarket and Aiyingshi [6][29] - Investment Theme 3: Highlight domestic beauty brands that cater to emotional value and innovative safe ingredients, recommending brands like Maogeping and Pola [6][29] - Investment Theme 4: Focus on differentiated medical beauty product manufacturers and leading chain medical beauty institutions, recommending Meilitiantian Medical Health and Aimeike [6][29] Market Performance - The retail and social service indices reported a slight decline of 0.34% and a slight increase of 0.02% respectively during the week of February 2 to February 6, 2026 [14][15] - The brand cosmetics sector showed the highest weekly increase of 4.99%, while the watch and jewelry sector led with a year-to-date increase of 16.56% [16][19] Company Highlights - Laopuhuangjin reported a significant revenue increase of 250.9% in FY2025H1, driven by brand expansion and customer base growth [31][32] - Chaohongji is expected to achieve a net profit growth of 125% to 175% in 2025, supported by differentiated product strength and multi-channel marketing [31][32] - Meilitiantian Medical Health anticipates a net profit increase of at least 34% in 2025, driven by both internal growth and acquisitions [39][40]