森麒麟：H1净利预增，摩洛哥项目落地在即

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company with a target price of RMB 33.30 [4]. Core Views - The company is expected to achieve a net profit attributable to shareholders of RMB 1.0-1.2 billion for H1 2024, representing a year-on-year growth of 65%-98% [1]. - The company has seen strong demand for its high-quality semi-steel tires in overseas markets, particularly in Europe and the United States, where orders are in short supply [2]. - The Moroccan project is progressing well, with plans to commence production in Q4 2024, contributing an additional capacity of 12 million semi-steel tires [3]. Summary by Sections Financial Performance - For H1 2024, the expected net profit is RMB 1.0-1.2 billion, with a growth rate of 65%-98% year-on-year. The Q2 net profit is projected to be RMB 500-700 million, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 40%-97% [1]. - The company has revised its profit forecasts for 2024-2026, now expecting net profits of RMB 2.28 billion, RMB 3.0 billion, and RMB 3.49 billion respectively [1]. Market Demand - The company’s semi-steel tire products are experiencing strong demand in the U.S. and European markets, with U.S. imports of semi-steel tires increasing by 10% year-on-year in the first five months of 2024 [2]. - The company achieved a tire production volume of 8.0757 million units in Q1 2024, a year-on-year increase of 28%, and sales of 7.6071 million units, up 16% year-on-year [2]. Project Developments - The Moroccan project is on track, with the company aiming for production to start in Q4 2024, which will add 12 million units of semi-steel tire capacity [3]. - The company’s Thai facility has received a favorable anti-dumping tax rate from the U.S. Department of Commerce, enhancing its competitive position in international markets [2].