Eastroc Beverage(SH:605499) Huaan Securities·2024-07-11 08:01Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" (maintained) [1] Core Views - The company is expected to achieve significant revenue and profit growth in Q2 2024, with revenue projected between 4.38 billion to 4.60 billion yuan (up 47%-55%) and net profit between 940 million to 1.07 billion yuan (up 53%-75%) [1] - The strong performance is attributed to both the main business and new product launches, with a notable increase in the contribution from new products [1][2] - The company is expected to maintain a high growth rate, with revenue growth exceeding 30% for five consecutive quarters [1] Revenue Analysis - In Q2, the main business is expected to grow by 35%-40% despite weak consumer demand and increased rainfall in southern regions, with inventory levels significantly reduced [1] - The special beverage segment is projected to account for approximately 80% of revenue in Q2, with a year-on-year growth of nearly 30% [1] - New products are anticipated to contribute nearly 20% to revenue in Q2, with a year-on-year increase of 130% [1] Profit Analysis - The net profit margin for Q2 is estimated at 22.3%, a year-on-year increase of 1.7 percentage points, indicating effective cost control [1] - For the first half of the year, the net profit margin is expected to be 20.9%, reflecting stability despite increased investments [1] Financial Forecast - The company’s revenue is projected to reach 15.23 billion yuan in 2024, 19.15 billion yuan in 2025, and 23.72 billion yuan in 2026, with year-on-year growth rates of 35.2%, 25.7%, and 23.9% respectively [2] - The forecasted net profit for the same years is 2.85 billion yuan, 3.68 billion yuan, and 4.63 billion yuan, with growth rates of 39.8%, 29.0%, and 25.7% respectively [2] Valuation Metrics - The current price-to-earnings (P/E) ratios are projected to be 30, 23, and 18 for the years 2024, 2025, and 2026 respectively [2]