JONJEE(SH:600872) GF SECURITIES·2024-07-11 08:31Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company, with a target price of 21.70 CNY per share, compared to the current price of 19.68 CNY [3]. Core Views - The company has announced a pre-profit notice for the first half of 2024, projecting revenue of 2.62 billion CNY, a year-on-year decrease of 1.32%. The net profit attributable to shareholders is expected to be between 315 million and 378 million CNY, recovering from a loss of 1.44 billion CNY in the same period last year [1]. - The adjusted net profit for the first half of 2024 is forecasted to be between 306 million and 368 million CNY, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 3.38% to 24.32% [1]. - For the second quarter of 2024, revenue is expected to be 1.14 billion CNY, down 11.88% year-on-year, with a net profit of 76 million to 139 million CNY, indicating a return to profitability [1]. - The company is facing short-term pressure on performance due to weak industry demand and ongoing reforms within its subsidiary, Meiwai Xian, which is expected to see a revenue decline of approximately 10% year-on-year in Q2 [1]. - The report projects revenue growth for 2024-2026 at 5.55 billion CNY, 6.23 billion CNY, and 7.11 billion CNY, respectively, with year-on-year growth rates of 6.55%, 13.72%, and 14.19% [2]. - The net profit forecast for the same period is 725 million CNY, 919 million CNY, and 1.11 billion CNY, with year-on-year changes of -57.30%, +26.85%, and +21.18% [2]. Financial Summary - The company reported a revenue of 5.34 billion CNY in 2022, which decreased to 5.14 billion CNY in 2023, with an expected recovery to 5.48 billion CNY in 2024 [2]. - The EBITDA is projected to increase from 795 million CNY in 2023 to 1.03 billion CNY in 2024 [2]. - The net profit attributable to shareholders is expected to recover from a loss of 592 million CNY in 2022 to a profit of 725 million CNY in 2024 [2]. - The report indicates a decrease in the net profit margin from -10.4% in 2023 to 13.5% in 2024, reflecting improved profitability [9].