SGC(SH:601139) Guotai Junan Securities·2024-07-11 13:31Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company, with a target price of 9.63 yuan, and forecasts EPS for 2024, 2025, and 2026 at 0.58, 0.65, and 0.74 yuan respectively [2][5]. Core Insights - The company's performance in Q2 2024 is expected to benefit from gas volume growth and the recovery of gross profit margins in Shenzhen. The demand for gas in the second half of 2024 is anticipated to increase, providing further room for margin recovery [2]. - The company reported an expected revenue of 13.78 billion yuan for the first half of 2024, a year-on-year increase of 9.5%, and a net profit of 740 million yuan, up 13.6% year-on-year. For Q2 2024, the expected revenue is 6.92 billion yuan, down 9.5% year-on-year, with a net profit of 460 million yuan, up 18.2% year-on-year [2]. - The sales volume of pipeline natural gas in Q2 2024 is projected to be 1.32 billion cubic meters, an increase of 2.8% year-on-year, while wholesale gas volume is expected to reach 112 million cubic meters, a significant increase of 103.6% year-on-year [2]. - The report highlights that the company has rich gas source reserves, having signed a 10-year long-term contract with PetroChina in March 2024 for a contract volume of 9.69 billion cubic meters [2]. Financial Summary - The financial summary indicates that the company's revenue is projected to grow from 30.93 billion yuan in 2023 to 34.34 billion yuan in 2024, representing an 11% increase. Net profit is expected to rise from 1.44 billion yuan in 2023 to 1.68 billion yuan in 2024, a growth of 16.6% [3][10]. - The report also provides a forecast for key financial metrics, including a net profit margin of 6.7% in Q2 2024, which is an increase of 1.6 percentage points year-on-year [2].