Asymchem(SZ:002821) Guotai Junan Securities·2024-07-11 22:01Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Overweight" rating for the company, with a target price adjusted to 80.00 from the previous forecast of 103.13 [2][4]. Core Insights - The company is expected to see a revenue decline of 40.72%-42.45% year-on-year for H1 2024, primarily due to a high base effect from large orders delivered in the same period last year. The net profit attributable to the parent company is projected to decrease by 67.39%-71.54% [4]. - Excluding large orders, the company's regular business shows growth, with a steady increase in new orders and enhanced capabilities in emerging businesses, indicating a positive long-term growth outlook [4]. - New orders are expected to grow over 20% year-on-year in H1 2024, with significant growth in orders from European and American markets [4]. Summary by Sections Financial Performance - The company forecasts H1 2024 revenue between 2.66 billion and 2.74 billion, with a net profit of 480 million to 550 million [4]. - EPS estimates for 2024-2026 are projected at 3.20, 4.09, and 5.34 respectively, with a PE ratio of 25X applied for valuation [4][8]. Business Development - The company has made significant strides in expanding its overseas presence and peptide production capacity, with the peptide solid-phase synthesis capacity expected to increase from 10,250L in 2023 to 14,250L in H1 2024 [4]. - The company has successfully established its first European R&D and production base in the UK, enhancing its global supply capabilities [4]. Market Position - The company has maintained a strong market position despite a challenging domestic biopharmaceutical financing environment, with its small molecule CDMO business showing positive growth when excluding large orders [4]. - The company has also seen a 50% year-on-year increase in new orders for its formulation CDMO business in 2023 [4].