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盐津铺子:收入稳健增长,盈利短期扰动

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company, expecting a relative increase of over 15% compared to the benchmark index within the next 6 to 12 months [10][13]. Core Insights - The company is projected to achieve revenue of 2.4 to 2.5 billion yuan in the first half of 2024, representing a year-on-year growth of 26.72% to 32%. The net profit attributable to shareholders is expected to be between 310 to 330 million yuan, with a growth rate of 26.18% to 34.32% [19]. - The company is focusing on seven core product categories, including spicy snacks and deep-sea snacks, to drive revenue growth. It is enhancing its supply chain and product offerings to meet diverse consumer needs [19]. - The report highlights a positive outlook for future growth, driven by continuous channel expansion and new product launches, with expectations for revenue to reach 5.32 billion yuan in 2024 and net profit to reach 666 million yuan [19]. Financial Summary - Revenue and Profit Forecasts: - Revenue (in million yuan): 4,115 in 2023, projected to grow to 5,323 in 2024, 6,610 in 2025, and 8,073 in 2026, with year-on-year growth rates of 42%, 29%, 24%, and 22% respectively [8]. - Net Profit (in million yuan): 506 in 2023, projected to grow to 666 in 2024, 851 in 2025, and 1,070 in 2026, with year-on-year growth rates of 68%, 32%, 28%, and 26% respectively [8]. - Earnings Per Share (EPS) is expected to increase from 2.58 in 2024 to 5.46 in 2026 [8]. - The company anticipates a decrease in production costs due to lower prices for certain raw materials, although increased share-based payment expenses may pressure profits in the short term [19].