Yanjing Brewery(SZ:000729) Huachuang Securities·2024-07-12 02:31Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Strong Buy" rating for Yanjing Beer (000729) with a target price of 18 CNY, compared to the current price of 8.92 CNY [1][2]. Core Views - The company is expected to achieve significant profit growth, with a forecasted net profit of 7.19-7.97 billion CNY for the first half of 2024, representing a year-on-year increase of 40%-55%. The non-recurring net profit is projected to be 7.00-7.75 billion CNY, reflecting a growth of 60%-77% [1]. - In Q2 2024, the net profit is anticipated to be between 6.17-6.94 billion CNY, with a year-on-year increase of 37%-54%, and the non-recurring net profit is expected to be 5.97-6.72 billion CNY, showing a growth of 57%-76% [1][2]. - The U8 brand is performing strongly, with sales expected to show resilience despite a generally weak recovery in consumption and high base effects [2]. - Cost advantages are being realized through raw material cost reductions and internal reforms, leading to a significant increase in gross margins [2]. - The company is expected to maintain strong sales momentum in the second half of the year, supported by ongoing reforms and cost reductions [2]. Financial Summary - For 2023, total revenue is projected at 14.213 billion CNY, with a year-on-year growth rate of 7.7%. By 2024, revenue is expected to reach 15.081 billion CNY, reflecting a growth rate of 6.1% [3]. - The net profit for 2023 is estimated at 645 million CNY, with a remarkable year-on-year growth of 83%. For 2024, the net profit is forecasted to be 980 million CNY, indicating a growth of 52.1% [3]. - Earnings per share (EPS) are projected to increase from 0.23 CNY in 2023 to 0.35 CNY in 2024, with corresponding price-to-earnings (P/E) ratios of 39 and 26, respectively [3].