东鹏饮料：Q2业绩超预期，高增势头不减

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy - B" [1]. Core Views - The company reported Q2 performance exceeding expectations, with a revenue forecast for H1 2024 between 7.86 billion to 8.08 billion yuan, representing a year-on-year growth of 43.95% to 47.98% [1]. - The net profit attributable to shareholders is expected to be between 1.6 billion to 1.73 billion yuan, showing a year-on-year increase of 44.39% to 56.12% [1]. - The company is focusing on expanding its product categories and enhancing its national distribution channels, with significant growth expected in its new product line, "Water La" [1]. Revenue Analysis - Q2 revenue growth is anticipated to be robust, driven by strong performance in functional drinks and water products [1]. - The company is expanding its distribution network and increasing the number of sales points, which is expected to contribute to steady revenue growth [1]. - The new product "Water La" has shown rapid sales growth, with daily sales surpassing 120,000 boxes in the first half of the year [1]. Profit Analysis - The estimated net profit margin for Q2 is projected to increase by 1.7 percentage points to 22.3% [1]. - The decline in raw material costs, particularly sugar and PET bottle prices, is expected to positively impact profit margins [1]. - Effective cost control measures are anticipated to further enhance profitability [1]. Investment Recommendations - The company is well-positioned to transition from a single-category to a multi-category beverage enterprise, leveraging its brand strength, distribution channels, and scale advantages [1]. - The revenue forecasts for 2024-2026 have been adjusted upwards, with expected revenues of 15.255 billion, 18.767 billion, and 22.632 billion yuan, reflecting year-on-year growth rates of 35.4%, 23.0%, and 20.6% respectively [2]. - The net profit forecasts for the same period have also been revised, with expected figures of 2.806 billion, 3.530 billion, and 4.301 billion yuan, indicating year-on-year growth rates of 37.6%, 25.8%, and 21.8% respectively [2].