Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for Xtep, with a target price adjusted to HKD 7.32, based on a FY24E price-to-earnings ratio of 14 times [1][2]. Core Views - Despite significant pressure in the sportswear industry, Xtep is expected to perform moderately better in the second half of 2024 due to successful product launches, strong e-commerce sales growth, and limited operational leverage from its wholesale business [1]. - The company has maintained its retail sales growth guidance for FY24E at over 10%, although adjustments have been made to the sales growth forecast due to the sale of K&P [1]. - The report highlights the strong performance of the Saucony brand, with retail sales growth exceeding 50% in 1H24, significantly outperforming many other overseas brands [1]. Financial Summary - Revenue (in million RMB): FY22A 12,930, FY23A 14,346, FY24E 15,322, FY25E 15,979, FY26E 17,494 [2]. - Year-over-Year Growth Rate (%): FY24E 6.8%, FY25E 4.3%, FY26E 9.5% [2]. - Net Profit (in million RMB): FY22A 912.3, FY23A 1,033.0, FY24E 1,275.3, FY25E 1,499.6, FY26E 1,756.7 [2]. - Earnings Per Share (in RMB): FY24E 0.46, FY25E 0.54, FY26E 0.64 [2]. - Price-to-Earnings Ratio (x): FY24E 9.6, FY25E 8.1, FY26E 6.9 [2]. - Dividend Yield (%): FY24E 14.1, FY25E 5.8, FY26E 6.8 [2]. Sales Performance - Xtep's retail sales growth in 2Q24 was reported at 10%, consistent with estimates and better than market expectations [6]. - Online sales surged over 25% in 2Q24, while offline sales showed modest growth [6]. - The inventory-to-sales ratio improved, indicating better inventory management and reduced retail discounts [6]. Brand Performance - Saucony's retail sales growth in 1H24 was over 50%, with expectations for continued strong performance in 2H24 due to new product launches and brand ambassador signings [1]. - The report notes that Xtep's strong e-commerce sales are supported by an increase in value products [1]. Adjustments and Forecasts - FY24E net profit estimates have been adjusted by -1%, +1%, and -1% for FY24E, FY25E, and FY26E respectively [1]. - The report indicates that the gross profit margin is expected to stabilize, while operating profit margin may improve due to reduced losses from the sale of K&P and lower advertising and promotion expenses [1].
特步国际：在经历了 2Q24 的弹性之后 ， 谨慎乐观