Eastroc Beverage(SH:605499) China Post Securities·2024-07-12 04:30Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" and is maintained [1] Core Views - The company has shown strong sales momentum in the first half of 2024, with revenue expected to reach between 78.6 billion to 80.8 billion yuan, representing a year-on-year growth of 43.95% to 47.98% [3] - The forecasted net profit attributable to shareholders is expected to be between 16.0 billion to 17.3 billion yuan, indicating a year-on-year increase of 44.39% to 56.12% [3] - The company is expected to continue its strong performance due to national expansion, increased terminal coverage, and product pricing strategies that align with current consumer trends [4] Summary by Sections Revenue Performance - The company is projected to achieve Q2 revenue of 43.78 billion to 45.98 billion yuan, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 47.4% to 54.8% [4] - Key growth drivers include ongoing national expansion, strong performance in northern and southwestern regions, and effective channel expansion [4] Profitability - The expected net profit for Q2 is between 9.36 billion to 10.66 billion yuan, with a year-on-year increase of 53.2% to 74.5% [4] - The net profit margin is anticipated to improve to 22.3%, up 1.7 percentage points year-on-year, driven by lower raw material costs and improved operational efficiencies [4] Financial Forecasts - Revenue forecasts for 2024-2026 have been raised to 149.73 billion, 186.83 billion, and 226.63 billion yuan respectively, with year-on-year growth rates of 32.95%, 24.77%, and 21.30% [6] - The projected net profit for the same period is 28.33 billion, 36.88 billion, and 44.11 billion yuan, with corresponding growth rates of 38.90%, 30.17%, and 19.61% [6] - The expected earnings per share (EPS) are 7.08, 9.22, and 11.03 yuan, with price-to-earnings (P/E) ratios of 30, 23, and 19 times [6]