国药股份：麻精特药分销龙头，ROE长期稳定在双位数

Investment Rating - The report assigns a "Buy" rating for the company, indicating a positive outlook for its stock performance [1][4]. Core Insights - The company is a leading distributor of narcotic and psychotropic drugs in China, maintaining a stable profit growth with a return on equity (ROE) consistently above 12% [1][6]. - The company holds approximately 80% market share in the narcotic drug distribution sector, benefiting from stringent regulatory barriers that limit competition [1][15]. - The company's revenue and net profit have shown a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 5.1% and 8.9% respectively from 2018 to 2023, with net profit growth outpacing revenue growth [1][11]. - The medical commercial segment is the primary source of revenue, with 2023 revenue reaching 483 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 9.4% [17][18]. Summary by Sections 1. Company Overview - The company is a key player in the narcotic drug distribution market, with a robust sales network covering over 30 provinces in China and a leading position in the Beijing medical market [10][11]. - It has achieved 100% coverage of grade hospitals in Beijing and serves over 4,700 grassroots medical institutions [10][19]. 2. Narcotic Drug Distribution Business - The narcotic drug distribution business is expected to maintain steady growth due to the company's strong market position and the recovery of hospital treatments post-pandemic [15][20]. - The company is one of only three firms with national wholesale licenses for narcotic and psychotropic drugs, ensuring a stable market share [15][21]. 3. Medical Commercial Segment - The medical commercial segment is the largest contributor to the company's performance, with significant revenue and profit margins [17][18]. - The company has established long-term partnerships with thousands of domestic and international suppliers, enhancing its competitive advantage [18][19]. 4. Profit Forecast and Valuation - The company is projected to achieve net profits of 2.38 billion yuan, 2.63 billion yuan, and 2.92 billion yuan for the years 2024 to 2026, with growth rates of 10.9%, 10.7%, and 11.0% respectively [2][22]. - The current price-to-earnings (PE) ratios for the forecasted years are 10x, 9x, and 8x, indicating a favorable valuation compared to peers [2][4].