BURTC(SH:600861) Guotai Junan Securities·2024-07-12 07:01Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Accumulate" rating for the company, with a target price of 24.00 CNY, based on a 14x PE valuation for 2025 [10][12]. Core Insights - The company's earnings forecast for H1 2024 is expected to be between 350 to 450 million CNY, representing a year-on-year growth of 65.95% to 113.36%. The net profit excluding non-recurring items is projected to be between 275 to 375 million CNY, indicating a significant growth of 269% to 403% [2][10]. - The report highlights that the company's growth is primarily driven by its outsourcing business, although the timing of subsidies may impact overall net profit growth [2][10]. - The report notes a substantial fluctuation in the earnings forecast due to macroeconomic conditions affecting existing business volumes, particularly in the core foreign enterprise segment in Beijing [2][10]. Financial Summary - The company’s revenue is projected to grow from 38.31 billion CNY in 2023 to 56.25 billion CNY by 2026, with a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of approximately 10.8% [12]. - The net profit attributable to the parent company is expected to increase from 548 million CNY in 2023 to 1.07 billion CNY in 2026, reflecting a CAGR of about 10.3% [12]. - The earnings per share (EPS) is forecasted to rise from 0.97 CNY in 2023 to 1.89 CNY in 2026 [12]. Business Growth Drivers - The report emphasizes that the growth in the outsourcing business is expected to continue, supported by the stability of key accounts and an increase in client size and job categories [2][10]. - The company plans to distribute a cash dividend of 274 million CNY, with a payout ratio of 50%, resulting in an approximate dividend yield of 3% based on the current stock price [2][10].