Meinian Onehealth(SZ:002044) China Post Securities·2024-07-12 09:00Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company, expecting significant growth in stock price relative to the benchmark index over the next six months [9]. Core Views - The company is projected to experience a revenue decline in the first half of 2024, with expected revenues between 4.06 billion to 4.35 billion yuan, representing a year-on-year decrease of 8.79% to 2.27%. However, the second quarter is anticipated to show revenue growth due to seasonal effects and stable customer orders [6][7]. - The company is expected to recover in the second half of 2024, with projected revenues of 12.31 billion, 14.16 billion, and 16.28 billion yuan for 2024, 2025, and 2026 respectively, indicating a compound annual growth rate of approximately 15% [6][7]. - The net profit for 2024 is forecasted to be 813 million yuan, with a significant increase in subsequent years, reaching 1.53 billion yuan by 2025 and 1.90 billion yuan by 2026 [7][8]. Financial Summary - The company reported a total revenue of 10.89 billion yuan in 2023, with a growth rate of 26.44%. The projected revenue growth rates for the next three years are 13.00%, 15.00%, and 15.00% respectively [7][8]. - The EBITDA for 2023 was approximately 2.60 billion yuan, with projections of 2.38 billion yuan for 2024, and an increase to 3.12 billion yuan by 2025 [7][8]. - The company's net profit margin is expected to improve from 4.6% in 2023 to 9.4% by 2026, reflecting enhanced operational efficiency [8]. Key Financial Ratios - The price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio is projected to decrease from 27.71 in 2023 to 9.19 by 2026, indicating a more attractive valuation over time [7][8]. - The return on equity (ROE) is expected to rise from 6.6% in 2023 to 13.5% by 2026, suggesting improved profitability and shareholder returns [8]. - The company's asset-liability ratio is forecasted to decrease from 56.8% in 2023 to 51.1% by 2026, indicating a strengthening balance sheet [8].