APG(002284) 长城证券·2024-07-12 09:31Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Overweight" rating for the company [10][21] Core Views - The company's 4Q23 operating profit exceeded expectations, with continued profitability expected in the future [2] - The company's EPB product secured its first global project, marking a significant milestone in its international market expansion [22] - The company's electronic control business, including EPB, ESC, and brake-by-wire products, is accelerating growth, with multiple projects expected to enter mass production around 2025 [21][22] Financial Performance - The company's revenue for 2023 was 3,874 million yuan, with a year-on-year growth of 3.3% [10] - Net profit attributable to the parent company in 2023 was 97 million yuan, a year-on-year increase of 42.7% [10] - The company's ROE improved from 2.5% in 2022 to 3.5% in 2023 [10] - The company's EPS for 2023 was 0.13 yuan, with a P/E ratio of 52.3x [10] Future Projections - Revenue is expected to grow to 4,350 million yuan in 2024, 5,060 million yuan in 2025, and 6,057 million yuan in 2026, with year-on-year growth rates of 12.3%, 16.3%, and 19.7% respectively [10] - Net profit attributable to the parent company is projected to reach 235 million yuan in 2024, 293 million yuan in 2025, and 382 million yuan in 2026 [10] - The company's ROE is expected to increase to 8.1% in 2024, 9.3% in 2025, and 11.0% in 2026 [10] Recent Developments - The company secured a 3.8 billion yuan EPB supply contract for two vehicle models of a foreign brand, with mass production expected to start in 2026 [20] - In 1H24, the company expects net profit attributable to the parent company to increase by 33%-62% year-on-year, reaching 90-110 million yuan [20] - The company's non-GAAP net profit in 1H24 is expected to grow by 90%-139% year-on-year, reaching 77.8-97.8 million yuan [20] Industry and Market Position - The company has a comprehensive development capability in chassis electronic control, including EPB, ESC, and brake-by-wire products [22] - As of September 2023, the company has secured four IBS (One-Box) project contracts, with mass production progressing smoothly [22] - The company's electronic control business is expected to drive rapid growth in performance, with multiple projects entering international customer supply chains [21]