GW COMPOS(300699) 西南证券·2024-07-13 13:02Investment Rating - The report assigns a "Buy" rating to the company with a current price of 27.17 CNY and a target price of 33.30 CNY over the next six months [1]. Core Views - The report emphasizes that the company is a leading player in high-performance carbon fiber, driven by both demand growth and capacity expansion. Key factors include the anticipated increase in military aviation composite material penetration, the ramp-up in commercial aircraft production (specifically the C919), and the release of new production capacities in both military and civilian sectors [2][3]. Summary by Sections 1. Company Overview - The company is recognized as a leader in high-performance carbon fiber in China, with a comprehensive industry chain that supports long-term development. It has established a dominant position in high-end fields such as aerospace [2][15]. 2. Market Demand and Growth Drivers - The report highlights a significant upcoming growth period for military carbon fiber demand, particularly with the introduction of new models like T800H, which will enhance the application of carbon fiber in military aircraft [2][8]. - The commercial aviation sector is also expected to see substantial demand growth, with the C919 aircraft projected to require over 400 tons of carbon fiber annually as production ramps up [2][3]. 3. Production Capacity and Expansion - The company is actively expanding its production capacity, with a new 4000-ton civil production line in Baotou that began operations in June 2024. Additionally, the T800H production line is undergoing equivalency verification, which will significantly increase output once completed [2][3][19]. 4. Financial Performance and Projections - The report forecasts earnings per share (EPS) of 1.11 CNY, 1.34 CNY, and 1.75 CNY for 2024, 2025, and 2026, respectively, with corresponding dynamic price-to-earnings (PE) ratios of 24, 20, and 15 [3][4]. - Revenue is expected to grow from 2,518 million CNY in 2023 to 3,011 million CNY in 2024, reflecting a growth rate of 19.61% [4][19]. 5. Competitive Landscape - The report notes that while there are concerns about the growth rate of high-end carbon fiber demand, the transition to new military aircraft and the increasing share of carbon fiber in commercial aviation will provide significant growth opportunities [8][9]. 6. Investment Risks - The report does not include specific risk factors but emphasizes the potential for accelerated growth in the company's performance due to favorable market conditions and production capacity expansions [3][9].