Yanjing Brewery(SZ:000729) Soochow Securities·2024-07-14 00:30Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for Yanjing Beer [1] Core Views - The company is expected to achieve a net profit attributable to shareholders of 719-797 million yuan in H1 2024, representing a year-on-year growth of 40%-55% [3] - The second quarter of 2024 continues the strong performance from Q1, with net profit expected to be 617-694 million yuan, marking a historical high for a single quarter since the company's listing [3] - The growth is attributed to management reforms, increased sales of the Yanjing U8 product, and a significant decrease in raw material costs [3][4] Financial Forecasts and Valuation - The total revenue is projected to grow from 14,213 million yuan in 2023 to 17,435 million yuan in 2026, with a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of approximately 5.44% [2] - The net profit attributable to shareholders is forecasted to increase from 644.71 million yuan in 2023 to 1,560.28 million yuan in 2026, reflecting a CAGR of about 25.74% [2] - The report adjusts the net profit forecasts for 2024-2026 to 970 million yuan, 1,240 million yuan, and 1,560 million yuan respectively, with corresponding net profit margins of 6.3%, 7.5%, and 8.9% [4] Market Data - The closing price of the stock is 9.53 yuan, with a market capitalization of approximately 26.86 billion yuan [5] - The price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio is projected to decrease from 41.66 in 2023 to 17.22 in 2026 [9] Basic Data - The company has a total asset value of 21.53 billion yuan in 2024, with a debt-to-asset ratio of 32.06% [6][9] - The book value per share is estimated to be 4.74 yuan in 2024 [9]