Jiayou International(SH:603871) INDUSTRIAL SECURITIES·2024-07-14 05:01Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Accumulate" rating for the company, suggesting a positive outlook for investment opportunities [1]. Core Views - The company is experiencing strong growth in its African business while still benefiting from its Mongolian coal operations. The report highlights the company's alignment with national mineral safety strategies and its deep understanding of logistics, which supports its long-term growth [1][17]. - The projected net profits for the years 2024, 2025, and 2026 are estimated at 1.45 billion, 1.73 billion, and 1.98 billion yuan respectively, with corresponding PE ratios of 12.2, 10.2, and 8.9 times based on the closing price on July 12 [1][15]. Financial Performance Summary - The company expects a median profit of approximately 460 million yuan for Q2 2024, leading to an upward revision of profit forecasts [1]. - Revenue for 2024 is projected to be 9.82 billion yuan, with a year-on-year growth rate of 40.4%. The net profit attributable to the parent company is expected to reach 1.45 billion yuan, reflecting a growth rate of 39.7% [15]. - The gross profit margin is anticipated to improve from 19.4% in 2023 to 19.8% in 2024, with a long-term target of 21.1% by 2026 [15]. Business Segments - Mongolian Operations: The company continues to see stable growth in its Mongolian coal business, with increased storage and supply chain share due to strategic investments and long-term planning [14][17]. - African Operations: The infrastructure projects in Africa, particularly the Kasai project, are expected to see significant growth in business volume as operational efficiencies improve. The integration of the newly acquired Zambian fleet is also projected to enhance logistics capabilities and market share [17]