从资产负债表看中国建筑的“底线价值”

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for China State Construction Engineering Corporation (601668.SH) [3] Core Views - The report emphasizes the importance of PB (Price-to-Book) valuation in the construction industry, indicating that it reflects the immediate liquidation value of the company and serves as a conservative valuation method [23] - The adjusted PB valuation suggests a conservative estimate of the company's value, with an adjusted static PB of 0.95 times, indicating a strong margin of safety [7][23] - The company has shown resilience in securing construction orders, with a 13.7% growth in orders during the first half of the year, and a shift towards infrastructure projects, which is expected to reduce repayment risks [7][8] Summary by Sections Financial Analysis - The report highlights that the company's total assets require an additional impairment deduction of 191.6 billion yuan, leading to an adjusted net asset value of 236 billion yuan [7][23] - The company's receivables totaled 257.7 billion yuan, with a cumulative impairment provision of 45.3 billion yuan, indicating a high impairment ratio of 14.9% [7][24] - Inventory is valued at 796.3 billion yuan, with a provision for impairment of 8.24 billion yuan, reflecting a conservative approach to potential inventory devaluation risks [7][29] Market Position - As a leading state-owned enterprise in the real estate sector, the company has a healthy land reserve structure, with 35% of its inventory located in first-tier cities [7][29] - The company’s sales price per square meter averaged 23,809 yuan, while the acquisition cost was 14,322 yuan, providing a significant safety margin [7][29] Future Outlook - The report forecasts a revenue increase to 2,434.1 billion yuan in 2024, representing a year-on-year growth rate of 7.4% [8][9] - The company is expected to distribute dividends of 11.3 billion yuan in 2024, with a dividend yield of 5.0%, which is attractive given the current market conditions [7][8]