TKGF(SH:601233) ZHESHANG SECURITIES·2024-07-14 10:02Investment Rating - The investment rating for Tongkun Co., Ltd. is "Buy" (maintained) [6] Core Views - The company is expected to achieve a significant year-on-year increase in net profit for the first half of 2024, with estimates ranging from 1.0 billion to 1.15 billion yuan, representing a growth of 849.40% to 991.81% [2] - The polyester filament industry is experiencing a recovery, leading to a substantial improvement in the company's performance in H1 2024, driven by increased downstream demand and a reduction in supply pressure [3] - The supply-demand dynamics for polyester filament are continuously optimizing, with expectations for further price improvements in the upcoming peak season [4] - The company is projected to have net profits of 3.197 billion, 4.215 billion, and 5.122 billion yuan for 2024, 2025, and 2026 respectively, with corresponding EPS of 1.33, 1.75, and 2.12 yuan [5] Summary by Sections Performance Expectations - The company's net profit for H1 2024 is expected to be between 6.0 billion and 7.5 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 31.86% to 64.82% [3] - In Q2 2024, the net profit is projected to be between 2.7 billion and 4.2 billion yuan, with an average quarter-on-quarter increase of 5.1% [3] Industry Dynamics - The polyester filament industry is in a recovery phase, with improved demand and reduced supply pressure due to major manufacturers cutting production [4] - The price differentials for polyester filament products have improved, indicating better profitability for the industry [4] Financial Projections - Revenue for the company is projected to be 94.971 billion, 102.018 billion, and 107.282 billion yuan for 2024, 2025, and 2026 respectively, with year-on-year growth rates of 14.92%, 7.42%, and 5.16% [9] - The company's P/E ratios are expected to decrease from 11.43 in 2024 to 7.14 in 2026, indicating an attractive valuation as earnings grow [5][9]