TENCENT(00700) 华泰证券·2024-07-14 13:02Investment Rating - The report maintains a positive outlook on Tencent Holdings with adjusted revenue forecasts for 2024-2026 reflecting slight decreases of -0.3%, -0.4%, and -0.4% respectively, primarily due to a slowdown in payment revenue growth within the fintech segment [4]. Core Insights - The adjusted net profit forecasts for 2024-2026 have been increased by 5.6%, 7.4%, and 8.1% to reach RMB 218.3 billion, RMB 249 billion, and RMB 279.6 billion respectively, driven by improvements in gross margins across all business lines [4]. - The report highlights an increase in advertising gross margins due to a higher proportion of revenue from video accounts and efficiency improvements brought by AI, alongside enhanced gross margins in fintech driven by increased contributions from wealth management and consumer loans [4]. Financial Forecast Summary - Revenue projections for 2023 are set at RMB 609 billion, with a year-over-year growth of 10%. For 2024, the revenue is expected to reach RMB 665.6 billion, with a growth rate of 9% [1]. - Gross profit for 2023 is forecasted at RMB 3,560 million, reflecting a 1.3% increase from previous estimates, while the gross profit margin is expected to improve to 53.5% [5][12]. - The adjusted net profit for 2023 is projected at RMB 2,183 million, indicating a significant increase of 10.4% compared to prior estimates [12]. - The report anticipates a steady increase in operating profit margins, with adjusted operating profit for 2023 expected to be RMB 1,919 million, representing a year-over-year growth of 34% [1][5].