长春高新深度报告：看好从大单品向多元驱动转型

Investment Rating - The report gives an "Accumulate" rating for Changchun High-tech [6] Core Views - The period from 2024 to 2026 is seen as a critical window for the company's growth curve transition, with expectations for steady growth in growth hormone products and the realization of innovative varieties [2][14] - The company is expected to evolve from a single product-driven model to a diversified and global operation, marking a shift from the "1.0 era" to the "2.0 era" focusing on women's and children's health [2][14] - The company has shown strong historical performance, with a revenue compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 22.07% and a net profit CAGR of 35.13% from 2018 to 2023 [2][14] Summary by Sections Changchun High-tech: Transitioning from Single Product to Diversified Growth - The company has successfully transformed from focusing on infrastructure to developing three main platforms: genetic engineering drugs, biological vaccines, and modern traditional Chinese medicine [14] - Key subsidiaries, Jin Sai Pharmaceutical and Baike Biological, contribute significantly to revenue and profit, with 2023 revenues of 11.084 billion and 1.825 billion respectively [14] Jin Sai Pharmaceutical: Dynamic Transition and Diversified Drive - Jin Sai Pharmaceutical's revenue CAGR from 2018 to 2023 reached 28%, with growth hormone products accounting for approximately 90% of revenue in 2023 [3][23] - The company is expected to see a stable revenue growth rate of 11% from 2023 to 2026, driven by the gradual release of long-acting growth hormones and non-growth hormone products [3][23] Baike Biological: Stable Growth from Existing Products and Rapid Release of New Products - The major product, the herpes zoster vaccine, launched in January 2023, is expected to drive rapid revenue growth, contributing 48.36% to total revenue in 2023 [4] - The company anticipates a revenue CAGR of over 25% from 2023 to 2026, supported by both existing and new products [4] Profit Forecast and Valuation - The company is projected to achieve a revenue CAGR of 12.28% and a net profit CAGR of 10.53% from 2023 to 2026, with expected EPS of 12.40, 13.77, and 15.13 for the years 2024, 2025, and 2026 respectively [5][10]