TKGF(SH:601233) Huaxin Securities·2024-07-15 06:00Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" investment rating for the company [8] Core Views - The company is expected to achieve a significant increase in net profit for H1 2024, with estimates ranging from 1 billion to 1.15 billion yuan, representing a year-on-year growth of 849.40% to 991.81% [2][3] - The polyester filament industry is experiencing a recovery, driven by improved downstream demand and a reduction in supply, leading to better price margins [3][4] - The company's market share has increased, solidifying its position as a leading player in the polyester filament sector, with a global market share of 18% and a domestic market share of 28% [7] Summary by Sections Financial Performance - The company forecasts a net profit of 3.021 billion yuan for 2024, with a growth rate of 279.0% [8] - The earnings per share (EPS) for 2024 is projected to be 1.25 yuan, with corresponding price-to-earnings (P/E) ratios of 12.1 for 2024, 8.8 for 2025, and 7.1 for 2026 [8] Industry Outlook - The polyester filament industry is seeing a slowdown in production capacity growth, with only two new projects expected to add a total of 860,000 tons per year, leading to an improved supply-demand structure [4] - The average prices for POY, FDY, and DTY in H1 2024 are projected to be 7695, 8244, and 9045 yuan per ton, reflecting year-on-year increases of 3.2%, 1.7%, and 2.8% respectively [3] Market Position - The company has achieved a historical high in market share, maintaining its status as the largest producer of polyester filament in China for 23 consecutive years [7] - The company’s product range includes over 1000 varieties across six major series, enhancing its competitive edge in the market [7]