歌尔股份：Q2业绩大幅增长，盈利改善逻辑持续兑现

Investment Rating - Buy rating maintained for Goertek (002241 SZ) with a target price of RMB 21 69 [1] Core Views - Goertek's Q2 2024 performance shows significant growth with net profit attributable to parent company expected to reach RMB 801-886 million a YoY increase of 167 3% [3] - The company's profitability is rapidly recovering with Q2 2024 net profit margin improving by 1 4 percentage points YoY [3] - AR products are expected to drive a new product cycle with Meta's Ray-Ban Meta audio glasses selling over 1 million units since October 2023 [3] - Goertek's strategic partnerships with Meta and Qualcomm position it to benefit from the AI+AR trend [3] Financial Performance Summary Revenue and Profit - 2024E revenue is projected at RMB 98 771 million a slight increase of 0 2% YoY [1] - 2024E net profit attributable to parent company is forecasted at RMB 2 509 million a YoY increase of 131% [1] - 2025E revenue is expected to grow by 21 5% to RMB 120 004 million [1] - 2025E net profit attributable to parent company is projected to reach RMB 3 526 million a YoY increase of 41% [1] Profitability Ratios - 2024E gross margin is expected to improve to 10 3% up from 8 9% in 2023 [4] - 2024E net margin is forecasted at 2 4% compared to 1 0% in 2023 [4] - 2024E ROE is projected at 7 6% a significant improvement from 3 5% in 2023 [4] Valuation Metrics - 2024E P/E ratio is estimated at 29 5x [1] - 2024E P/B ratio is projected at 2 3x [1] Key Financial Indicators Balance Sheet - 2024E total assets are expected to reach RMB 77 111 million up from RMB 73 744 million in 2023 [4] - 2024E total liabilities are forecasted at RMB 43 876 million resulting in a debt-to-equity ratio of 30 1% [4] Cash Flow - 2024E operating cash flow is projected at RMB 9 000 million a YoY increase of 10 4% [4] - 2024E free cash flow is expected to improve significantly due to reduced capital expenditures [4] Growth Drivers - Goertek's smart acoustic and smart hardware businesses are showing improved profitability [3] - The company's focus on operational efficiency and cost control is driving margin expansion [3] - The AR market is expected to grow rapidly with Goertek well-positioned to capitalize on this trend [3] Industry Outlook - The electronics industry is benefiting from the AI and AR/VR trends with Goertek being a key player in these segments [3] - The company's partnerships with leading tech firms like Meta and Qualcomm provide a competitive advantage [3]