ZMNY(SH:600163) Guoxin Securities·2024-07-15 06:02Investment Rating - The report assigns an "Outperform the Market" rating for the company, marking its first coverage [3][6]. Core Views - The company is recognized as a quality renewable energy operator in Fujian Province, focusing on wind, solar, and biomass power generation [5][9]. - The offshore wind power projects are being developed in an orderly manner, with future revenues expected to maintain reasonable levels due to technological advancements and cost reductions [5][6]. - The company has a strong asset base, with significant growth potential in offshore wind capacity, particularly in Fujian Province, which benefits from favorable wind resources [5][6]. Summary by Sections Company Overview - The company has a total installed capacity of 957.3 MW, with onshore wind accounting for 63.86%, offshore wind 30.92%, solar 2.09%, and biomass 3.13% as of 2023 [11][19]. - The company is controlled by Fujian Investment Group, which holds a 64.14% stake [9]. Offshore Wind Power Development - As of 2023, the cumulative installed capacity of offshore wind power in China reached 37.29 million kW, a year-on-year increase of 22.4% [5]. - The company is expected to benefit from the green electricity and green certificate trading, enhancing project revenues [5]. Power Market Structure - The power supply structure in Fujian is primarily coal-based, with a total installed capacity of 81.41 million kW as of 2023 [13]. - The demand for electricity is expected to grow due to urbanization and industrialization, with projections indicating an annual growth rate of 5.9%-6.7% [13]. Asset Quality and Growth Potential - The company’s existing assets are of high quality, with operational projects located in regions with favorable wind resources [5]. - The utilization hours for the company’s wind projects in Fujian are above the national average, indicating strong operational efficiency [5]. Valuation and Investment Recommendations - Revenue projections for 2024-2026 are estimated at 1.768 billion, 1.810 billion, and 1.986 billion yuan, with corresponding net profits of 701 million, 767 million, and 851 million yuan [6]. - The estimated stock value ranges between 5.16 and 5.53 yuan, suggesting a potential premium of 0%-7% over the current stock price [6].