WLY(000858) 长城证券·2024-07-15 09:01Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for Wuliangye [8]. Core Viewpoints - Wuliangye has the potential to enhance its brand strength and narrow the gap with competitors, particularly Moutai, due to its strong brand heritage and the undervaluation of its scarcity attributes [3][24]. - The company needs to focus on expressing quality value to restore brand value, leveraging its scarce high-quality production capacity [3][24]. - Wuliangye's growth strategy should balance short-term performance with long-term high-quality growth, aiming for breakthroughs in higher price segments [8][24]. Financial Summary - Revenue (in million CNY): - 2022A: 73,969 - 2023A: 83,272 - 2024E: 91,674 - 2025E: 102,033 - 2026E: 114,277 - Year-over-Year Growth Rate (%): - 2022A: 11.7 - 2023A: 12.6 - 2024E: 10.1 - 2025E: 11.3 - 2026E: 12.0 - Net Profit Attributable to Shareholders (in million CNY): - 2022A: 26,690 - 2023A: 30,211 - 2024E: 33,874 - 2025E: 38,298 - 2026E: 43,581 - Year-over-Year Growth Rate (%): - 2022A: 14.2 - 2023A: 13.2 - 2024E: 12.1 - 2025E: 13.1 - 2026E: 13.8 - ROE (%): - 2022A: 24.0 - 2023A: 23.8 - 2024E: 23.7 - 2025E: 23.4 - 2026E: 23.1 - EPS (CNY): - 2022A: 6.88 - 2023A: 7.78 - 2024E: 8.73 - 2025E: 9.87 - 2026E: 11.23 - P/E Ratios: - 2022A: 18.3 - 2023A: 16.2 - 2024E: 14.4 - 2025E: 12.8 - 2026E: 11.2 - P/B Ratios: - 2022A: 4.3 - 2023A: 3.8 - 2024E: 3.4 - 2025E: 3.0 - 2026E: 2.6 [1][2][8]. Industry Context - The report outlines the historical evolution of the Chinese liquor industry, highlighting the transitions in leading brands and the strategic shifts that have occurred over time [2][12]. - Wuliangye's rise was attributed to its pricing strategies and innovative channel leverage, which allowed it to establish a significant competitive advantage during favorable market conditions [2][18]. - The report emphasizes the importance of brand perception and pricing strategy in the competitive landscape, particularly in relation to Moutai, which has successfully positioned itself as a premium brand [2][18][20].