Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company [1] Core Views - The company's main brand showed accelerated growth in Q2 2024, with retail sales increasing by 10% YoY, driven by the e-commerce channel and the launch of the cost-effective carbon plate running shoe 360X series [2] - The retail discount improved to approximately 75% in Q2 2024, compared to 70-75% in Q1 2024, and the inventory turnover ratio returned to a healthy level of 4 months [2] - The company is expected to achieve revenue of RMB 15,420 million, RMB 16,255 million, and RMB 18,438 million in 2024, 2025, and 2026, respectively, with net profits attributable to the parent company of RMB 1,218 million, RMB 1,397 million, and RMB 1,619 million [2] - The PE ratios for 2024, 2025, and 2026 are projected to be 10X, 9X, and 8X, respectively, based on the closing price of HKD 5.21 on July 12, 2024 [2] Financial Performance Summary Revenue and Profit Growth - The company's revenue is expected to grow by 7%, 5%, and 13% in 2024, 2025, and 2026, respectively, reaching RMB 15,420 million, RMB 16,255 million, and RMB 18,438 million [4] - Net profit attributable to the parent company is projected to grow by 18%, 15%, and 16% in 2024, 2025, and 2026, respectively, reaching RMB 1,218 million, RMB 1,397 million, and RMB 1,619 million [4] Profitability Metrics - ROE is expected to increase from 11.6% in 2023 to 12.8%, 13.7%, and 14.7% in 2024, 2025, and 2026, respectively [5] - Gross margin is projected to improve slightly from 42.2% in 2023 to 42.4%, 42.8%, and 43.2% in 2024, 2025, and 2026, respectively [5] - Net profit margin is expected to increase from 7.2% in 2023 to 7.9%, 8.6%, and 8.8% in 2024, 2025, and 2026, respectively [5] Valuation Metrics - The P/E ratio is expected to decrease from 12.18X in 2023 to 10.30X, 8.98X, and 7.75X in 2024, 2025, and 2026, respectively [5] - The P/B ratio is projected to decrease from 1.41X in 2023 to 1.31X, 1.22X, and 1.13X in 2024, 2025, and 2026, respectively [5] - The P/S ratio is expected to decrease from 0.87X in 2023 to 0.81X, 0.77X, and 0.68X in 2024, 2025, and 2026, respectively [5] Operational Efficiency - The inventory turnover ratio is expected to remain stable at 4.2 times in 2024, 2025, and 2026 [5] - The accounts receivable turnover ratio is projected to improve from 2.9 times in 2023 to 3.6 times in 2024 and remain stable in 2025 and 2026 [5] Balance Sheet and Cash Flow - The company's cash and cash equivalents are expected to increase from RMB 3,295 million in 2023 to RMB 4,156 million, RMB 5,000 million, and RMB 6,717 million in 2024, 2025, and 2026, respectively [5] - Operating cash flow is projected to improve significantly from RMB 683 million in 2023 to RMB 2,408 million in 2024, before stabilizing at around RMB 1,400 million in 2025 and 2026 [5] Debt and Liquidity - The debt-to-asset ratio is expected to increase from 48.5% in 2023 to 52.8%, 53.1%, and 55.9% in 2024, 2025, and 2026, respectively [5] - The current ratio is projected to decrease slightly from 2.06 in 2023 to 1.92 in 2024, before improving to 2.01 and 2.16 in 2025 and 2026, respectively [5]
特步国际：2024Q2运营点评：主品牌Q2增长环比提速，运营质量稳健