中国船舶：中报业绩超预期，盈利拐点已至

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company, with a target price of 47.8 CNY per share, compared to the current price of 41.70 CNY [2]. Core Views - The company has released a mid-year performance forecast for 2024, expecting a net profit attributable to shareholders of 1.35-1.5 billion CNY, representing a year-on-year growth of 144%-171%. The net profit for the second quarter alone is projected to be 950-1,100 million CNY, reflecting an increase of 86%-116% year-on-year [1]. - The improvement in performance is primarily driven by the completion of low-priced ship deliveries and the commencement of high-priced order confirmations. Currently, only about 5% of the company's backlog consists of low-priced ships, which have been largely delivered, allowing for a faster overall delivery pace and an anticipated quicker improvement in profitability [1]. - Looking ahead, the shipbuilding industry is expected to enter a new phase of sustained performance exceeding expectations. New ship prices have been on the rise since 2021, with an average annual increase of 8-10%. The confirmation of orders in 2024 will mainly come from orders placed before 2022, with high-priced orders expected to be confirmed in 2025-2026. The industry is witnessing three new changes: increasing order volumes, nominal ship prices likely reaching historical highs, and a performance explosion in ship enterprises, all of which are being validated [1]. - The report forecasts that the company's net profit attributable to shareholders will reach 5.16 billion CNY in 2024, 7.67 billion CNY in 2025, and 10.7 billion CNY in 2026. Based on historical valuation metrics, a price-to-book (PB) ratio of 4 times is applied for 2024, leading to a fair value estimate of 47.8 CNY per share [1]. Summary by Sections Financial Performance - The company expects to achieve a revenue of 95.236 billion CNY in 2024, with a growth rate of 27.3%. The net profit is projected to be 5.16 billion CNY, reflecting a growth rate of 74.5% [5]. - The EBITDA is anticipated to be 8.544 billion CNY in 2024, with a significant recovery from previous losses [5]. - The earnings per share (EPS) is expected to rise to 1.15 CNY in 2024, with a price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio of 36.14 [5]. Market Outlook - The shipbuilding industry is entering a new era characterized by rising order volumes and improving profitability. The report emphasizes the importance of capitalizing on this new phase of investment opportunities in the shipbuilding sector [1].